The France-Germany day-ahead power spread compressed roughly 70% from its 30 June heatwave peak of €71.50/MWh to around €18-26/MWh by 4-5 July, as the heat broke and both legs fell1. German day-ahead means dropped to roughly €62-64/MWh from €195 on 30 June, nearly halving.
France held the cheaper leg throughout the window, consistent with the 22 June reset where EDF nuclear kept French clearing below Germany. France last traded as the dearer leg on 15 June, a brief inversion that has not returned.
Germany's thermal stack drove the premium: gas-and-carbon CCGT set a high day-ahead floor through peak cooling demand, and that floor unwound as temperatures fell, compressing the clean spark spread with it.
The forward risk sits in September, when Flamanville-3 enters a year-long overhaul and removes roughly 1.6 GW from EDF's fleet at the onset of the heating season. Whether France holds the cheaper leg through it, or German thermal reclaims the discount, is the trade this desk watches.
