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Iran Conflict 2026
3JUN

AUMF unfiled, blackout hits 1,728 hours

3 min read
09:04UTC

Senator Lisa Murkowski's Iran AUMF remained unfiled on 13 May, rendered procedurally moot by Hegseth's Article 2 testimony. Iran's internet blackout reached 1,728 cumulative hours by 12 May, projecting the 2,000-hour milestone to 18-19 May.

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Key takeaway

Murkowski's AUMF stayed unfiled on 13 May while Iran's blackout passed 1,728 cumulative hours.

Senator Lisa Murkowski's threatened Iran AUMF remained unfiled on 13 May 2026, the deadline she set on 9 May having passed and Pete Hegseth's Article 2 testimony on 12 May having rendered the instrument procedurally moot. Murkowski's earlier condition for filing had been a credible White House plan with defined objectives, success metrics, exit criteria and congressional reporting. None of those documents has arrived; what arrived instead was a cabinet officer telling appropriators under oath that none of them is required.

Iran's internet blackout reached 1,728 cumulative hours by 12 May, per NetBlocks data extending the 1,704-hour figure logged on 11 May . At the current round-the-clock accrual rate, the 2,000-hour milestone falls around 18-19 May, the week Trump returns from Beijing. Seventy-two days of near-total global isolation for roughly 90 million Iranians, with ATMs and hospital systems routed through the loyalist tier that still carries IRGC command and control, is now a domestic governance fact rather than a wartime emergency measure.

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on 14-15 May formally lists Iran as an agenda item alongside trade and Taiwan 1. The agenda line is the only paper on which Iran appears this week; everything else (Hegseth's testimony, the blackout extension, the BRICS Delhi meeting, the $29 billion war cost) runs on the verbal track that the Day 75 unsigned streak now confirms as method.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Three things that have stayed the same since the Iran conflict began are worth summarising together. First: Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican from Alaska, had threatened to introduce legislation requiring President Trump to get congressional approval for the Iran war. As of 13 May, she still had not introduced it. The day before, a senior US official told Congress that Trump does not need congressional approval anyway. Second: Iran has had its internet cut off almost entirely since the war began in February. By 12 May that had added up to 1,728 hours, about 72 days, with no internet access for roughly 90 million people. At the current rate, the 2,000-hour mark arrives around 18-19 May. Third: the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, starting 14 May, officially listed Iran on its agenda alongside trade and Taiwan. Both the US and China have now acknowledged Iran as a topic requiring bilateral discussion.

First Reported In

Update #96 · Hegseth: no AUMF needed. Trump flies east

The White House· 13 May 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
AUMF unfiled, blackout hits 1,728 hours
Three loose ends crystallise the week's posture: the legislative brake formally moot, the domestic isolation extending toward a new milestone, and the Trump-Xi summit listing Iran without any signed text behind the agenda line.
Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London underwriters
Lloyd's of London underwriters
Lloyd's held its Hormuz war-risk rate at $10-14 million per voyage; underwriters need a UN Security Council resolution or formal PGSA de-listing before repricing, not a Senate testimony. The PGSA remains on the SDN list under EO 13224, so any vessel transiting a nominally reopened strait still deals with a sanctioned counterparty.
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states
Brent crude at $95-97 on 2-3 June reflects Gulf producers benefiting from the conflict premium; a genuine Hormuz deal would likely cut that premium by $10-15 per barrel. Riyadh's $87 per barrel budget breakeven means the current price is comfortable, reducing the Gulf's urgency to push for a rapid settlement.
China
China
OFAC's Nobitex designation leaves China's informal bilateral currency-swap lines with Iran as the CBI's remaining rial-defence mechanism; Chinese financial institutions face secondary-sanctions risk if they interact with successor wallets. Beijing's MOFCOM Blocking Rules protect mainland refineries from direct designation but do not shield informal swap-line counterparties.
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon's Washington delegation demanded full Israeli withdrawal and the return of 1.2 million displaced; Hezbollah deployed an FPV drone that killed an Israeli soldier at Yohmor while talks ran, demonstrating it can impose costs even at Israel's deepest penetration point. Lebanon's government cannot deliver the Hezbollah disarmament guarantee Israel demands.
Israel / Benjamin Netanyahu
Israel / Benjamin Netanyahu
Israeli forces seized Beaufort Castle above the Litani on 1-2 June and advanced to within 10 km of the Zaharani river while ceasefire delegations sat in Washington; the advance ran entirely outside the Beirut-only truce Netanyahu accepted on 1 June. Each kilometre taken raises Israel's withdrawal price before any permanent text is signed.
Iran: Foreign Ministry and domestic population
Iran: Foreign Ministry and domestic population
Araghchi rang six capitals in 48 hours to reopen talks the SNSC had suspended, calling the IRGC line 'speculation'; at home, 37 political prisoners were executed since 19 March while students marched in Tehran, Mashhad and Hamadan. The diplomatic thaw has not eased the state's wartime repression tempo.