23APR

Bank of Russia poll sees 7.1% inflation

2 min read

09:21UTC

Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia now expect 7.1% inflation this year and a wider budget deficit, even with a higher oil price.

← Back to Sovereignty summit, minus the sovereigns Jump to analysis ↓

TechnologyAssessed

Key takeaway

Russian forecasters expect a wider deficit even with oil at $70.

Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia raised their forecast for this year's inflation to 7.1%, from 6.6%, in a survey the bank published on 14 October⁠¹. They now expect the key rate, the bank's benchmark interest rate, to average 12.8% next year, up from 12.4%. They see the consolidated budget deficit at 3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, from 3.5%, and 3.0% next year, from 2.6%.

The same analysts raised this year's oil price assumption to $70 a barrel, from $64, yet still widened their deficit forecasts⁠². If oil earns more and the deficit grows anyway, the analysts expect spending to outrun revenue. Russia's Finance Ministry is gloomier on oil: it has already cut its own oil and gas revenue forecast for the year. The analysts' deficit figure includes regional budgets, so it does not compare directly with the ministry's federal plan.

The bank held its rate in September and named fuel prices as an inflation driver. It meets again on 23 October, and the analysts' forecast implies the rate staying at 14% for the rest of the year, The Moscow Times reported⁠³.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia's central bank asks private economists for their forecasts every few months. The latest survey shows them expecting prices to rise faster this year than they thought before. They also expect the government to spend more than it earns, even though they think oil, Russia's main export, will sell for more. The central bank sets its interest rate on 23 October. High inflation makes it harder to cut rates, which keeps loans expensive for Russian businesses and families.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Inflation forecasts above 7% make a Bank of Russia rate cut on 23 October less likely.

Sources:Central Bank of Russia·The Moscow Times

Mentions:Central Bank of Russia →Russia →Moscow Times →Moscow →

First Reported In

Update #29 · Trump waives his own 500% Russia tariffs

Central Bank of Russia· 17 Oct 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Bank of Russia holds rate and names fuel

Analysts raised their rate path after the bank's September hold at 14%.

Occurred 11 Sept 2026

Read story →

Russia plans record 17.1tn for defence

Wider deficit forecasts follow the Finance Ministry's cut to its oil and gas revenue forecast.

Occurred 30 Sept 2026

Read story →

This Event

Bank of Russia poll sees 7.1% inflation

Russia's forecasters expect dearer money for longer and a deficit that grows even when oil earns more.

Different Perspectives

ESMC (TSMC-majority joint venture)

ESMC's president said construction remains on schedule after the Dresden fab's topping-out ceremony on 14 September, reported by Focus Taiwan with first process equipment still targeted for the second half of 2027. No first-party ESMC or TSMC statement independently confirms the claim, and the fab remains 70% TSMC-owned inside a project Europe cites as its semiconductor sovereignty case.

Civo

Civo sold out its Navigate London sovereignty conference on 22 September, drawing about 800 attendees including a sitting MP, a former defence procurement minister and sponsors led by Nokia. Companies House confirms chief executive Mark Boost as Civo's sole person with significant control, British and UK-resident, which answers the ownership question the conference itself is arguing matters.

United States Trade Representative

USTR opened its 2027 National Trade Estimate comment window on 14 September, naming the EU among markets with restrictive technology requirements and inviting submissions on cross-border data rules. The window follows Trump's 24 July Section 301 order into EU digital rules by seven weeks, and unused comments are kept, in USTR's own wording, for future negotiations.

Cohere

Cohere published the deal on 16 September without naming a regulator, running the merged company globally under its own brand from dual Toronto and Berlin headquarters. It pledges the combined company will deliver sovereign AI on STACKIT, the Schwarz Group's German platform, aimed at government buyers weighing that offer against Berlin's own anchor-customer signal.

Germany (Federal Government)

Digital Minister Karsten Wildberger called the Cohere talks "a very strong signal" and signalled Berlin's readiness to become an anchor customer, now its main lever since equity sits with Cohere. The German side secured a co-headquarters and two Cohere C-suite seats, but the protective-rights terms it pressed for in July remain undisclosed.

Poland

Poland leads a self-announced AI Gigafactory consortium with a EUR 100 million phase-one commitment, matched by Czechia and joined by Hungary at EUR 25 million. EuroHPC has confirmed no consortium for the call closing 12 November, so the bloc exists only in national announcements so far.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.