AIS (Automatic Identification System) monitoring data recorded one commercial cargo transit through the strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours1. The pre-war baseline was 30 to 50 daily transits carrying roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product exports. The diplomatic narrative of ships getting through collapses against this primary data.
Pakistan secured a second bilateral deal with Iran: 20 more vessels at two per day, bringing the total to approximately 40 Pakistani-flagged ships2. Iran's state media framed it as a bilateral arrangement, not a concession on Hormuz sovereignty. Iran drew this distinction deliberately. Iran's five conditions for ending the war include permanent sovereignty over the strait; the Pakistan deal costs Tehran nothing on that legal question.
The IEA March report confirms nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product exports disrupted through Hormuz, substantially higher than the 8 mb/d production disruption commonly cited3. Buried in the same report: demand growth revised down 210,000 barrels per day, an early recession signal. The Majlis toll bill is expected to be finalised this week. Passage would embed Hormuz control in Iranian domestic law, converting de facto IRGC control into a constitutional fact that no negotiator could concede.
