3AUG

German gas plants ignore cheaper fuel

2 min read

10:53UTC

German fossil-gas generation fell from 4.37 GW on 24 July to 2.09 GW on the 26th and 2.85 GW on the 27th, over the same days that gas itself got cheaper.

← Back to Two of 27 have filed on the gas rulebook Jump to analysis ↓

EconomicAssessed

Key takeaway

German gas output fell as gas got cheaper, because the merit order had already left these units behind.

German fossil-gas generation ran 4.37 GW on 24 July, 2.09 GW on Sunday the 26th and 2.85 GW on Monday the 27th, falling across the very days the fuel got cheaper. ¹ The CCGT fleet did not come back, and the reason is arithmetic rather than sentiment.

Dispatch responds to the fuel price only while the plant is close enough to the money for the fuel price to decide the outcome. Once the spread runs to roughly minus EUR 40/MWh, no hour that a wind farm can cover will call a gas turbine, and a few euros off the cargo does not close a gap that size. The merit order had already moved past these units; cheapening their input moved it back by a rounding error.

German storage got there first, stopping its bids for prompt cargoes on 21 July with injection down to 0.8 GWh a day , because a cavern's alternative buyer for a prompt cargo is a gas plant that will not run. No storage reading fresher than 22 July could be sourced this window, so this briefing will not tell you where the fill sits today. What it can tell you is that the demand-side case for refilling has not improved on cheaper gas, and that is the sentence any 2027 or 2028 gas-plant investment case now has to answer: a regime exists in which an eight per cent fall in the fuel price makes the asset less profitable, not more.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Even though gas got cheaper this week, German gas power stations still ran less, not more. That sounds backwards, but it makes sense once you know that these plants had already stopped being profitable at any price close to what gas actually costs; the problem is not the cost of the fuel; it is that wind power is now supplying so much electricity that gas plants are not needed as often, whatever they burn.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh on the spark spread, the fuel price stops being the variable that decides dispatch, because no plausible level of demand clears at a price high enough to cover the plant's marginal cost; cheaper gas lowers that marginal cost only slightly, from around EUR 123/MWh to EUR 117/MWh across this window, nowhere near the EUR 77 to EUR 84/MWh power actually cleared at.

That is why fossil-gas generation kept falling, 4.37 GW to 2.85 GW, through the same four sessions TTF fell 8 per cent: the plant is not being priced out by expensive fuel, it is being priced out by cheap wind, and cheaper fuel cannot fix a revenue problem.

What could happen next?

Meaning
German gas-fired generation now tracks the residual load left after wind and solar, not the TTF gas price, a structural shift from how the fleet behaved earlier in the cycle.

Sources:SMARD / Bundesnetzagentur via Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts

Mentions:Germany →TTF →CCGT →

First Reported In

Update #30 · Wind, not peace, sank the German spark

SMARD / Bundesnetzagentur via Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts· 27 Jul 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

This Event

German gas plants ignore cheaper fuel

Below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh on the spread, the fuel price stops being the binding input on dispatch, so a cheaper cargo changes nothing.

Led to

German caverns quit the prompt-gas bid

German fossil-gas output kept falling as German caverns had already quit the prompt-gas bid on 21 July (ID:5232), the same storage economics showing up on the generation side.

Occurred 21 Jul 2026

Read story →

German gas plants back in profit

Gas turbines returning to bid for prompt gas reverses the fall in German gas-fired generation recorded on 27 July.

Occurred 30 Jul 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Cross-border power traders

The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.

EDF

River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.

Gasunie

TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.

German gas-fired generators

Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.

European Commission (DG Energy)

Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.

Spain's LNG terminal operators

Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.