ACER's monitoring report maps 45 to 55 bcm a year of authorised long-term Russian contracts still running, and it names where they land. Pipeline deliveries of 16 to 26 bcm a year continue into Hungary, Slovakia and Greece; LNG cargoes of 20 to 32 bcm a year come ashore in Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The full LNG and pipeline bans take effect only in November 2027.
These are the deals the March short-term ban never touched. Regulation (EU) 2026/261 grandfathered long-term contracts and six origins to keep the pipeline-dependent members onside , so the volume that actually matters was always going to survive to the full cutoff. The mid-June step-down faded within a day for the same reason: the contracts carrying the bulk of the gas were never in its scope.
For a desk pricing forward risk, the map turns a vague policy worry into a sized, dated catalyst. The repricing concentrates in a handful of named importers rather than spreading across the whole curve, and it sits roughly eighteen months out. Frontloading now pulls volumes forward, so the physical tightening in 2027 may bite faster than a straight-line contract run-off would imply.
