Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
15APR

A petrol rise, and a powder keg warning

2 min read
13:33UTC

An Iranian MP on the Majlis Economic Committee warned that raising petrol prices now would be a spark in a powder keg. Food and drink inflation is running at 128.1%.

← Back to TTF EUR 42 as Russian LNG ban enters rangeJump to analysis ↓
EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Iran's fuel subsidy is unaffordable and its removal is, on the committee's own account, dangerous.

Member of parliament Hossein Samsami of the Majlis Economic Committee warned on Monday 17 August that a petrol price rise under present conditions would be "a spark in a powder keg" 12. The Majlis is Iran's parliament, and its economic committee scrutinises budget and subsidy policy, so the warning comes from inside the body that would have to approve any change.

The numbers behind it are published by the government itself. Point-to-point inflation, the measure Iran reports against the same month a year earlier, ran at 87.9% for the Iranian month of Tir, which ended on 22 July, with food and drink inflation at 128.1%, reported by Dawn citing the Iranian Labour News Agency and the Statistical Centre of Iran 3. Iran's minimum wage runs at about 25 million tomans a month, or roughly 250 million rials, because one toman is ten rials and Iranian sources quote both 4. That wage is being spent into food prices that have more than doubled in a year.

Kerman province announced a refinery-rate petrol rise on 12 August and cancelled it inside a day , so Samsami is describing a decision the state has already flinched from once. Petrol in Iran is sold far below the cost of producing it, which makes the subsidy a growing hole in the budget and the price rise the obvious repair; what stalls the repair is the political cost, and Kerman measured that cost in a single day. The central bank's contribution in the same month was to open Iran's first foreign-currency investment fund , which serves the people who hold currency rather than the people queueing for coupons.

Washington's shortage this week acquired a contract, a term and a delivery rate. Tehran's arrives in a household's grocery bill, and no procurement decision reaches it.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Hossein Samsami sits on the economic committee of Iran's parliament. He warned that raising petrol prices now, while the economy is already under strain, could set off unrest. Iran keeps petrol artificially cheap through subsidies it can no longer easily afford. Raising the price would save the government money but risks the kind of public anger that turned deadly the last time it tried, in 2019.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Petrol in Iran remains priced far below production cost, a subsidy funded from the same budget squeezed by sanctions on oil exports; the shortfall must be covered by other spending or by inflation, not by the price of petrol itself.

Samsami's committee sits inside the Majlis's economic bloc, which has to weigh the subsidy's fiscal cost against the 2019 precedent, a constraint that leaves no politically safe option rather than a hidden one.

Sources:Iran International·Khabar Farsi
Mentions:Hossein Samsami →Iran →Majlis →Washington →Tehran →Iraq →Kerman →
First Reported In

Update #174 · A $22.9bn missile order, and a hunger row

Iran International· 23 Aug 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Kerman scraps petrol rise in a day
Samsami's warning follows Kerman's abandoned refinery-rate petrol rise, describing a decision the state has already flinched from once.
Occurred 11 Aug 2026
Read story →
This Event
A petrol rise, and a powder keg warning
Tehran has to choose between an unfunded fuel subsidy and a price rise its own economic committee says could trigger unrest.
Different Perspectives
Cross-border power traders
Cross-border power traders
The France-Germany day-ahead spread flipped from a EUR 17.20 German premium on 1 August to a EUR 4.15 French premium on 3 August, the same day French curtailment peaked. They cannot yet attribute the flip to curtailment alone, since a like-for-like overnight comparison shows French nuclear output rising while wind fell and demand returned on the weekday step.
EDF
EDF
River-cooling limits took 7.6 GW, 12 per cent of its fleet, offline on 3 August, the highest curtailment since the heatwave began, with an easing forecast to 4.3 GW on 4 August and 3 GW after. It manages the cut as a recurring seasonal constraint, expecting it to lift with river temperature, not repair.
Gasunie
Gasunie
TTF, the Dutch hub it operates, drifted to roughly EUR 55 to 58 per MWh across the window, staying inside its recent range through both the German spark reversal and the French curtailment. It reads a flat hub price as evidence that neither event this window carried enough weight to move the fuel leg on its own.
German gas-fired generators
German gas-fired generators
Record German solar of 18,761 MW on 2 August pushed the clean spark spread to minus 18.48 EUR/MWh, a loss-making day, before it returned to plus 16.20 on 3 August. They now price dispatch against post-solar residual load rather than wind alone, since the sign flipped inside 48 hours on unchanged fuel and carbon costs.
European Commission (DG Energy)
European Commission (DG Energy)
Its implementing-measures register logged transposition notices from only Portugal and Slovakia against Wednesday's Article 94 deadline for Directive (EU) 2024/1788, with 25 states silent. It expects the register to fill only gradually, since filing routinely lags legislating and any infringement track against non-notifying states runs on a slower clock than the deadline itself.
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's LNG terminal operators
Spain's 9,145 GWh terminal inventory is the largest single stock in the EU LNG network, an option value that can reroute cargoes wherever the winter strip pays best rather than a cavern gas obligation tied to a fixed date. That flexibility matters more as Germany's cavern shortfall pushes more of the winter security question onto import infrastructure.