Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank, estimated the cost of refilling EU gas storage to the revised target at EUR 35 billion at EUR 60/MWh, 55% above last year's equivalent costs. Europe needs approximately 180 additional LNG cargoes compared to last summer to reach the revised target by November. A gas price doubling from pre-crisis levels would add EUR 100 billion to the EU's annual import bill, which was EUR 117 billion last year.
Bruegel's policy recommendation includes an untested lever: a buyer coalition with Japan and South Korea, which together with the EU represents 60% of global LNG demand. Coordinated purchasing could counteract the cargo-by-cargo bidding war that currently favours sellers. No such coalition has been attempted at this scale, and the coordination challenges between three blocs with different regulatory frameworks and procurement cycles are substantial.
