Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Drones: Industry & Defence
26OCT

Sanctions licence dies in OFAC silence

4 min read
15:07UTC

OFAC let General Licence V expire at 12:01am Eastern on Sunday with no guidance on whether Hengli's refinery restructure clears the 50% ownership test; banks open Monday in the dark.

TechnologyAssessed
Key takeaway

A US sanctions exemption on a Chinese refiner lapsed with no guidance, leaving banks to guess their exposure.

OFAC, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, let General Licence V expire at 12:01am Eastern on Sunday 24 May without publishing any extension, replacement, or guidance⁠1. The licence, signed on 24 April under Executive Order 13902, had authorised firms to wind down dealings with Hengli Petrochemical's sanctioned Dalian refinery. From Monday's Asia open, any non-US bank clearing dollars for Hengli faces a secondary-sanctions designation of its own.

The silence matters because of a structural question nobody answered. On 21 May, Hengli's Singapore arm transferred 95% of the Dalian refinery to Dalian Changxing, a Chinese state-linked trading house. OFAC's 50% rule treats any entity owned 50% or more by a blocked person as itself blocked. The transfer therefore clears sanctions only if Dalian Changxing is genuinely independent of the Hengli structure; if it is a front, the asset stays blocked and so does every bank that touches its dollars. No bank and no regulator answered that question before the deadline.

The expiry was mechanical, set on 24 April and immovable. The deal Trump declared the same weekend was verbal and contingent. Treasury enforcement and presidential diplomacy ran on the same Sunday without referencing each other, because one answers to a calendar and the other to a Truth Social post. OFAC's refusal to rule before the deadline is itself the enforcement posture: compliance desks must assume exposure and price it in.

Beijing had already moved. China's National Financial Regulatory Administration ordered banks on 1 May to stop new lending to five US-sanctioned refineries, while telling them not to demand repayment of existing credit⁠2. That order, alongside MOFCOM's Announcement No. 21 blocking statute, shields the same five refiners OFAC has pointedly declined to designate. Asia opens Monday with the legal status of every Hengli dollar trade unresolved, the enforcement clock running, and the promised waivers conditional on a text that does not yet exist.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) administers America's sanctions programmes, effectively deciding which companies are barred from using US dollars. A rule called the '50% rule' says that if a sanctioned entity owns 50% or more of another company, that company is treated as sanctioned too. In April, OFAC sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical, a large Chinese oil refinery. Three days before a key OFAC deadline expired on 24 May, Hengli's Singapore trading arm transferred 95% of the Dalian refinery to a different Chinese company called Dalian Changxing. Hengli's argument was: we no longer own more than 50% of the refinery, so the new company (Dalian Changxing) should not count as sanctioned. OFAC's deadline expired on 24 May without the bureau clarifying whether it agrees. This matters because any bank clearing US dollars for Hengli or Dalian Changxing now faces potential US penalties from Monday, but nobody knows for certain whether those penalties actually apply. Banks must decide whether to keep processing the trades or freeze them while waiting for clarity that may never come.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

OFAC's General Licence V (GL V) was the only signed Iran instrument of the entire 80-day war. Its 30-day wind-down period ending 24 May was a fixed administrative deadline rather than a policy choice.

The bureau's silence on the Dalian Changxing restructure reflects a structural constraint: issuing a ruling that the restructure is clean would effectively endorse the evasion mechanism and invite its replication across all five NFRA-protected refineries. Issuing a ruling that the restructure is tainted would force a direct confrontation with Beijing at a moment when the Trump-Xi relationship is the primary channel for China's Hormuz-transit diplomacy.

The 95% Dalian Changxing stake is this event's unique load-bearing figure: a Chinese state-linked entity now controls the refinery, OFAC's 50% ownership rule applies automatically to any entity 50%-or-more owned by a blocked person, but 'owned by' requires tracing beneficial ownership through Dalian Changxing back to the original sanctioned structure, which OFAC has not done. Banks must self-assess, with no guidance.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Non-US banks that continue clearing Hengli dollar trades from Monday face live secondary-sanctions exposure with no guidance covering their position. One enforcement action against a major correspondent bank would trigger industry-wide freezing of similar trades.

  • Consequence

    The 95% Dalian Changxing restructure, if accepted de facto by OFAC's silence, becomes a template for all five NFRA-protected refineries to exit the formal sanctions perimeter, hollowing out the Iran energy-sanctions architecture without a single enforcement action.

First Reported In

Update #106 · Trump says deal; OFAC says nothing

US Treasury OFAC· 24 May 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Nigerian Air Force
Nigerian Air Force
The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.
Civilians in Western Sahara
Civilians in Western Sahara
A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.
Thunder Tiger
Thunder Tiger
The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.
EDGE Group
EDGE Group
The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.
Rajnath Singh
Rajnath Singh
India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.
Kongsberg
Kongsberg
The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.