Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Drones: Industry & Defence
26OCT

Money went into WTI, not into Brent

3 min read
15:07UTC

CFTC data for the week to 28 July put money-manager net length at 15,740 lots in Brent Last Day against 92,943 in NYMEX WTI, and the Brent print reconciles exactly to this desk's 21 July figure.

TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

Money managers added about twenty times more WTI length than Brent on the week, leaving Europe's refining story barely traded.

The CFTC published Commitments of Traders data for the week to 28 July showing money managers net long 15,740 lots of Brent Last Day, up just 1,485 on the week, against 92,943 lots net long in NYMEX West Texas Intermediate, up 28,964⁠1. Brent Last Day is the CFTC-reported futures contract, code 06765T, and not the same instrument as dated Brent, the physical assessment quoted in cargo deals. The Commitments report is the weekly regulatory snapshot of who holds what in US-listed futures, and money managers are the speculative category within it.

Backing the weekly change out of the new print returns 14,255 contracts for the prior week, exactly the Brent figure this desk published for 21 July. Two consecutive prints reconciling to the lot rather than to the round number means the series can be read as continuous, so the comparison below rests on verified arithmetic rather than on an assumption that the reporting basis held steady.

Ratios of this size do not usually survive a week in which the European product complex outperforms. The week's build ran roughly twenty to one toward the American contract, and even in standing lots the WTI book is close to six times the Brent one, while RBOB gasoline, a US retail-facing product with no European spread consequence, carried 73,877 lots, itself more than four times the Brent book. A paper market barely positioned in the contract where European refining economics live is a market that can leave a record physical margin unpriced for weeks. For a trader, the practical read is that hedging a European product exposure through Brent futures currently means transacting in a thin speculative book, and that the flat-price selloff carried far more open interest behind it than the crack move did.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Every week, US regulators publish how many bets big traders have placed on oil prices rising or falling. This week's data showed traders had piled far more bullish bets onto the American oil price (WTI) than onto the international one (Brent), even though it was Europe's diesel market, not America's, that was under the most visible strain. That mismatch is a clue that the traders placing these bets were reacting to something else, likely US-specific, rather than to the European story making headlines.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Speculative funds size positions against the market where they see the clearest, most liquid expression of a view, and dollar-denominated US macro trades (rates, tariffs, domestic supply) currently offer that clarity in WTI more than the European story does in Brent.

A thin Brent book does not mean funds see no European risk; it more often means they are expressing that view through refined-product instruments, options, or over-the-counter swaps that this weekly futures-only dataset cannot capture.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    If Brent length stays thin while the European crack keeps climbing, dated Brent could eventually decouple from the futures contract's positioning entirely, complicating hedges for anyone using Brent futures as a proxy for European refining risk.

First Reported In

Update #22 · The premium unwinds; the diesel crack does not

CFTC· 3 Aug 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Money went into WTI, not into Brent
Speculative conviction went into the American benchmark by roughly twenty to one in the same week Europe's diesel margin made its high, leaving the European story almost unheld in paper.
Different Perspectives
Nigerian Air Force
Nigerian Air Force
The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.
Civilians in Western Sahara
Civilians in Western Sahara
A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.
Thunder Tiger
Thunder Tiger
The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.
EDGE Group
EDGE Group
The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.
Rajnath Singh
Rajnath Singh
India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.
Kongsberg
Kongsberg
The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.