Iran's Majlis began drafting legislation on 31 March to codify the IRGC's Hormuz toll into permanent domestic law.1 A vote was expected before the end of March but cannot proceed until parliament reconvenes. At projected scale, revenue estimates reach $600 million to $800 million per month from oil tankers and LNG carriers combined.
The legislative step matters because it changes the nature of what the toll is. An operational wartime measure can be reversed by the military that imposed it. A law can only be reversed by the parliament that passed it, with Guardian Council approval, after a political process that no Iranian politician has incentive to initiate. Shadow fleet vessels already account for 80% of Hormuz transits, and the toll is being paid by state-backed Chinese container ships. The infrastructure is built. Legislation is the lock.
The last time a state imposed transit fees on a major international waterway was the Ottoman Empire's Bosphorus tolls, abolished by the 1936 Montreux Convention. Iran's version is being codified in real time during an active war. The NPT withdrawal bill remains frozen in the same parliament: the Majlis has not sat in 31 days, with no reconvening date announced. When it does sit, both bills advance simultaneously.
