26OCT

Germany and France print sub-zero hours

2 min read

15:07UTC

German day-ahead printed minus €15.01/MWh in its lowest quarter-hour on Saturday 25 July, France minus €11.32, the first sub-zero prints of the window.

← Back to China puts drone-part exports under licence Jump to analysis ↓

TechnologyAssessed

Key takeaway

Negative quarter-hours arrived while the daily mean held near €90, a within-day shape problem.

German day-ahead power printed minus €15.01/MWh in its lowest quarter-hour on Saturday 25 July, and France minus €11.32, the first sub-zero prints of this window after a hard zero floor earlier in the week, when German day-ahead was still clearing near €100 on an already negative spark.⁠¹

The daily mean tells a different story from the extremes. Germany still averaged €89.90/MWh that day, because 18.86 GW of solar met a Saturday load of 44.4 GW.⁠² Midday oversupply drove a handful of quarter-hours below zero while the evening ramp kept the average up. Anyone hedged on daily averages saw an unremarkable summer weekend; anyone dispatching against quarter-hourly prices saw hours they had to pay to generate into.

A secondary tracker put Saturday's German day-ahead at €85.11/MWh.⁠³ This desk's €89.90 averages every quarter-hourly print of that day, published by SMARD under Bundesnetzagentur licence. The two figures measure different things and both can be right, which is worth knowing before anyone reconciles a position against the wrong series.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

For a few fifteen-minute periods on Saturday, both Germany and France were briefly paid to take electricity rather than paying for it, the first time either market had gone below zero in this run. That sounds dramatic, but it only happened for a handful of quarter-hours; across the whole day, average prices in both countries stayed well above zero. It happens because some power stations, like nuclear reactors, cannot simply switch off for fifteen minutes when there is a brief surplus, so the price goes negative instead to persuade someone to use the extra power.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

A negative quarter-hour does not mean supply exceeded demand across the whole day, only that inflexible generation, must-run thermal plant, nuclear baseload and subsidised renewables that keep running regardless of price, could not be curtailed fast enough to avoid a brief oversupply window; Germany's €89.90 daily mean on the same day shows the problem was confined to specific quarter-hours rather than the day as a whole.

The structural driver is the mismatch between fifteen-minute price granularity and generation that cannot ramp on that timescale, which is why the two negative quarter-hours arrived on the softest-demand day of the week rather than the highest-wind day.

What could happen next?

Meaning
The first sub-zero quarter-hours of the window are a granular oversupply signal, not evidence that either market's daily price level has broken down.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: Spain logged 397 hours of negative day-ahead prices in the first quarter of 2026, eight times the 48 hours recorded a year earlier, as solar penetration pushed midday prices below zero; that Iberian pattern is now the same mechanism surfacing in German and French quarter-hourly data, a shape problem migrating north as renewable penetration rises.

Counter-parallel: Spain's negative hours were driven by midday solar; Germany and France's first sub-zero prints of this window instead landed on a Saturday combining 18.86 GW of German solar with a comparatively low weekend load, a demand-side rather than a purely generation-side trigger, so the two markets are converging on negative pricing through different weekday and weather patterns.

Sources:SMARD / Bundesnetzagentur via Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts·SMARD / Bundesnetzagentur via Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts

Mentions:Germany →France →SMARD →Spain →Bundesnetzagentur →

First Reported In

Update #30 · Wind, not peace, sank the German spark

SMARD / Bundesnetzagentur via Fraunhofer ISE energy-charts· 27 Jul 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

This Event

Germany and France print sub-zero hours

Negative quarter-hours alongside a daily mean near €90 make this a shape problem inside the day, not a collapse in the level.

Led to

Same wind, two prices: solar sets gap

The first sub-zero quarter-hour prices of 25 July contrast with the EUR 187.30 night-time peak of 31 July on similar wind levels, isolating solar as the swing variable.

Occurred 31 Jul 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Nigerian Air Force

The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.

Civilians in Western Sahara

A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.

Thunder Tiger

The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.

EDGE Group

The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.

Rajnath Singh

India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.

Kongsberg

The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.