UNE (Unión Eléctrica Nacional), Cuba's state grid operator, published a Nota Informativa on Thursday 16 July recording an actual peak deficit of 2,126 MW the previous day, forecasting 2,240 MW for the 16th, and reporting 990 MW of available generation against 3,200 MW of maximum demand, with service disrupted across the full 24 hours "por falta de capacidad de generación"1.
These are the grid operator's own numbers, not a diaspora estimate or an opposition tally, which is what makes them worth publishing. Cuban state institutions release little that outsiders can check against anything. UNE puts out a daily bulletin carrying a forecast, and a forecast can be marked against the following day's outturn. On this occasion the operator was telling Cubans before breakfast that more than two thirds of the island's demand would go unmet.
A forecast deficit set above the previous day's actual deficit, published two days after a total collapse, describes a system that has not recovered what it lost. The 990 MW of available generation is the figure to hold against the 3,200 MW peak, because the gap between them is not an emergency to be scheduled around. It is the ordinary operating condition of the grid, and the rotating blackout blocks are simply how the state decides who absorbs it. The bulletin's own phrase, "por falta de capacidad de generación", points past the wires and back at the fuel: no tanker has berthed anywhere on the island since CUPET's designation in June.
