UNE (Unión Eléctrica Nacional, Cuba's state electricity grid operator) published a daily bulletin on 15 April 2026 forecasting a 1,732 MW blackout load at the 20:30 peak, against projected demand of 3,000 MW and available generation of 1,298 MW1. That is a 43 per cent coverage ratio at the hour every household, hospital and factory is drawing at once. Tuesday 14 April's actual evening deficit came in at 1,860 MW, above plan.
The thermal fleet is carrying the shortfall. CTE Ernesto Guevara unit 1, CTE Antonio Maceo units 3 and 5, and CTE Felton unit 2 are all out of service simultaneously, with a further four blocks in scheduled maintenance. Only CTE Cienfuegos unit 4 (98 MW) is expected back for the peak. The plants are the 40-year-old Soviet-design thermoelectrics that the Guevara plant flagship epitomises, run without routine access to spare parts and fed on residual fuel oil that the island is struggling to source.
Cuba's renewable build-out is visible in the bulletin but cannot fill the evening hole. The 54 new solar photovoltaic parks delivered a 505 MW peak at midday on 14 April and zero at 20:30. Four planned 50 MW battery installations that would shift solar output into the evening window have no confirmed in-service date. The crisis is structurally a thermal-fleet-at-night problem, and the fuel to run the remaining thermal capacity is exactly the supply the 18 March carve-out keeps blocked. Cubadebate publishes the UNE bulletins; the state outlet is both primary source and interested party.
