TTF front-month recovered to €42.59/MWh on 22 June, up 3.5% from the €41.12 settlement struck the day the Russian pipeline import ban took effect on 17 June. TTF is the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe's benchmark wholesale gas hub and the reference price for supply contracts and LNG arbitrage across the continent.
The benchmark sits boxed between two forces. Below it is a ban-priced floor near €41, where the geopolitical premium has fully drained and there was no snap-back once the ban took effect. Above it is a ceiling set by a renewed Strait of Hormuz risk premium, after the chokepoint moved to contested-open status on 20 June1. the strait's legal status is owned by the Iran-conflict-2026 briefing; for this desk it is only the datable input that lifted the prompt off its floor this week.
The contested-open status matters here purely as a price signal, not a narrative. While safe passage stays legally disputed, QatarEnergy carries no fixed date to begin its restart. Its stated 50%-in-one-month, 80%-in-two-months recovery clock has no start trigger, and two destroyed liquefaction trains cap any volume it could bring back.
The practical read for a trading desk is a prompt that can drift within a tight band on sentiment without a fresh physical catalyst. The floor is structural and tested; the ceiling depends on a sovereign discretion no European buyer controls.
