Brent Crude, the benchmark that prices roughly two-thirds of internationally traded oil, settled at $94.98 on 1 June, spiked to $101.36 on the morning of 3 June, then fell to $96.97 by 4 June1. The 3 June print was the first move back above $100 since 25 May.
The round-trip says traders are pricing neither a signed deal nor a full blow-up. The market has settled into a $95 to $102 band that holds the conflict premium without betting on its resolution. Each fresh headline, a presidential phone call or a Senate hearing, moves the price for a session before it retraces, because nothing has changed the underlying supply risk through the strait of Hormuz.
Lloyd's of London shows why. The insurance market's Joint War Committee designates high-risk maritime zones, and to de-list Hormuz it requires a UN Security Council resolution or a government certification letter, not testimony or optimism. It has not repriced its Hormuz war-risk cover at all. Until an actual instrument lands, the insurers hold the premium steady while the futures market swings around it.
