RAND Corporation assessed in November 2025 that China's crewed lunar landing target of 2030 is credible1. The assessment rests on observable hardware progress: the Mengzhou crew capsule has a robotic test flight scheduled for 2026, the Lanyue lander for 2027, and a joint crewed test mission for 2028 or 2029.
China's Long March 10 rocket generates 2,678 tonnes of thrust, compared to SLS's 3,992 tonnes. It is purpose-built for a two-launch lunar landing architecture, designed from the start for this mission rather than repurposed from a cancelled programme. China's advantage is architectural coherence, not raw lifting power.
Artemis IV, now the first potential crewed landing after Artemis III's redesignation, targets 2028. Two years separate it from China's 2030 target on paper. But Artemis has slipped five to seven years from original projections, and no independent assessment confirms 2028 is achievable. A single further slip could see China land astronauts on the Moon before the United States completes its first crewed landing under Artemis.
Some nations are already hedging. Of the 61 Artemis Accords signatories, countries including Thailand and Senegal have also signed onto China and Russia's rival International Lunar Research Station programme2. The coalition is less exclusive than headline numbers suggest.
