University of Michigan
US research university providing solar storm forecasting models tested on Artemis II.
Last refreshed: 3 April 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Can Michigan's models give crews 24 hours' warning of a lethal solar storm?
Latest on University of Michigan
- What is the University of Michigan doing on Artemis II?
- Michigan is testing two solar storm forecasting models during the Artemis II translunar mission — one using SDO and SOHO imagery for daily probability scores, one physics-based offering up to 24 hours warning.Source: Event: Two storm forecasting models get their first live test
- How much warning can NASA get before a solar storm hits Artemis II?
- The University of Michigan physics-based model can provide up to 24 hours advance warning, requiring 3,000 processing units on a NASA supercomputer.Source: Event: Two storm forecasting models get their first live test
- What percentage of solar storms are dangerous to astronauts?
- Only the top 5% of solar particle events produce radiation exposure sufficient to cause nausea-level symptoms in unprotected crew.Source: Event: Two storm forecasting models get their first live test
- How do the Michigan solar storm models work?
- One uses machine-learning analysis of SDO and SOHO spacecraft imagery for daily storm probability; the other is a physics-based model requiring significant supercomputer processing for 24-hour advance warning.Source: Event: Two storm forecasting models get their first live test
Background
The University of Michigan is providing two solar storm forecasting models that are undergoing their first operational test during the Artemis II translunar transit. One model uses imagery from the SDO and SOHO spacecraft to generate daily solar particle event probability scores; the other is a physics-based simulation capable of issuing up to 24 hours' advance warning of a major storm, though it requires 3,000 processing units on a NASA supercomputer to run.
The University of Michigan is a major public research university in Ann Arbor, Michigan, consistently ranked among the world's top institutions for engineering and space science. Its involvement in Artemis II centres on its Space weather Laboratory, which has spent years developing predictive models for solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The Artemis transit represents the first time humans have ventured far enough from Earth for these models to be tested in conditions that matter for crew safety, rather than simulated scenarios.
Only the top 5% of solar particle events produce radiation exposure sufficient to cause nausea-level symptoms in unprotected crew. The Michigan models aim to distinguish routine events from those requiring crew shelter in Orion's storm shelter area. Success during Artemis II would validate the models for use on Artemis III and future Lunar Gateway rotations, where astronauts may be days away from emergency Earth return.
