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Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin
Nate Silver's subscription forecaster; generic ballot hit D+6.9 on 28 May 2026, past the 2018 wave mark.
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#728 May
Recorded D+6.9 generic ballot average on 28 May, highest of the cycle
US Midterms 2026: Generic ballot hits D+6.9, above 2018 wave mark#529 Apr
Recorded D+5.9 generic ballot on 6 May, a 9.1-point swing from January 2025
US Midterms 2026: Callais guts VRA Section 2 mandate#427 Apr
Recorded generic ballot at D+5.8, first reading at that level this cycle
US Midterms 2026: Generic ballot hits D+5.8, first this cycle#316 Apr
Mentioned in: NJ-11 special tests Dem swing benchmark
US Midterms 2026#313 Apr
Mentioned in: Cook shifts four Senate races to Dems
US Midterms 2026#313 Apr