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Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin
Nate Silver's subscription forecaster; its generic ballot aggregate is the industry's most-cited midterm indicator.
17 of 17 entries (16 events, 1 interactions)
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#17 11 Sept
Recorded an unchanged D+6.6 generic-ballot average across three dated captures
US Midterms 2026: Cook moves nothing, ballot stays flat#16 11 Aug
Launched FLIPR and revised its estimates after the Missouri ruling
US Midterms 2026: Cook moves six seats, all one way#15 3 Aug
Mentioned in: Michigan votes with the establishment behind
US Midterms 2026#15 3 Aug
“Silver Bulletin recorded a record low net approval”
US Midterms 2026 · source event
#15 2 Aug
Silver Bulletin puts Trump net approval at -20.6
US Midterms 2026#14 22 Jul
Mentioned in: Sabato moves three races for governor
US Midterms 2026#13 12 Jul
Recorded a D+6.3 weighted generic ballot average
US Midterms 2026: Generic ballot climbs back toward D+7#12 3 Jul
Mentioned in: June hiring stalls as jobs turn soft
US Midterms 2026#11 30 Jun
Reported the generic ballot easing to D+6.1 on 30 June
US Midterms 2026: Democratic ballot lead eases to D+6.1#10 20 Jun
Published generic ballot average of D+6.2 on 20 June, down from D+6.9 on 28 May
US Midterms 2026: Pollsters split eight points on the House#10 18 Jun
Mentioned in: Cook moves seven seats, none back
US Midterms 2026#7 28 May
Recorded D+6.9 generic ballot average on 28 May, highest of the cycle
US Midterms 2026: Generic ballot hits D+6.9, above 2018 wave mark#5 29 Apr
Recorded D+5.9 generic ballot on 6 May, a 9.1-point swing from January 2025
US Midterms 2026: Callais guts VRA Section 2 mandate#4 28 Apr
Recorded generic ballot at D+5.8, first reading at that level this cycle
US Midterms 2026: Generic ballot hits D+5.8, first this cycle#3 16 Apr
Mentioned in: NJ-11 special tests Dem swing benchmark
US Midterms 2026#3 13 Apr
Mentioned in: Q1 GDP contracts under tariff drag
US Midterms 2026#3 13 Apr