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Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin
Nate Silver's subscription forecaster; its generic ballot aggregate is the industry's most-cited midterm indicator.
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#123 Jul
Mentioned in: June hiring stalls as jobs turn soft
US Midterms 2026#1130 Jun
Reported the generic ballot easing to D+6.1 on 30 June
US Midterms 2026: Democratic ballot lead eases to D+6.1#1020 Jun
Published generic ballot average of D+6.2 on 20 June, down from D+6.9 on 28 May
US Midterms 2026: Pollsters split eight points on the House#1018 Jun
Mentioned in: Cook moves seven seats, none back
US Midterms 2026#728 May
Recorded D+6.9 generic ballot average on 28 May, highest of the cycle
US Midterms 2026: Generic ballot hits D+6.9, above 2018 wave mark#529 Apr
Recorded D+5.9 generic ballot on 6 May, a 9.1-point swing from January 2025
US Midterms 2026: Callais guts VRA Section 2 mandate#428 Apr
Recorded generic ballot at D+5.8, first reading at that level this cycle
US Midterms 2026: Generic ballot hits D+5.8, first this cycle#316 Apr
Mentioned in: NJ-11 special tests Dem swing benchmark
US Midterms 2026#313 Apr
Mentioned in: Cook shifts four Senate races to Dems
US Midterms 2026#313 Apr