Kpler

Kpler, a commodity shipping and trade analytics firm, provided the first independent quantitative assessment of the Hormuz Ceasefire reopening on 8 April 2026. Its analysis found that while four bulk cargo vessels transited the strait on Day 1 of the Ceasefire, zero oil tankers did so, despite Iran's announcement that the waterway was open. The finding directly contradicted Iranian state media claims that the reopening was proceeding normally and gave the shipping industry's risk-aversion concrete numerical form.

Kpler tracks real-time vessel movements using AIS (Automatic Identification System) transponder data combined with satellite imagery, making it one of the most authoritative sources for independent assessment of maritime traffic. Its coverage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes, is particularly closely watched by commodity traders and energy markets. Goldman Sachs and other investment Banks routinely cite Kpler data in their market analysis.

The zero-tanker figure on Ceasefire Day 1 contributed to Brent Crude's 2.8% rebound to $97.42 on 9 April, as markets priced in the gap between Iran's diplomatic signals and actual tanker operator behaviour. It also provided independent evidence for the argument that the IRGC's publication of mine charts was having a concrete deterrent effect on traffic even before formal enforcement began.