What is JP Morgan?: JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the largest bank in the United States by total assets, headquartered in New York. It operates across investment banking, commercial banking, and asset management, with a presence in over 100 countries.Source: JPMorgan Chase
What did JP Morgan predict about the Iran war recession?: JP Morgan raised its US recession probability estimate to 35%, citing the Strait of Hormuz disruption as the primary driver. Alongside Goldman Sachs, it projected Brent Crude at $110-130 per barrel if the conflict continued.Source: JP Morgan
How does JP Morgan's recession forecast compare to Goldman Sachs?: JP Morgan put US recession odds at 35%, higher than Goldman Sachs' 25% estimate at the same point in the conflict. Both Banks agreed on $110-130 oil as the prolonged-conflict scenario.Source: JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs
What oil price is JP Morgan forecasting for the Iran conflict?: JP Morgan projected Brent Crude at $110-130 per barrel for a prolonged conflict scenario, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 20% of the world's traded oil.Source: JP Morgan
Why does JP Morgan's recession forecast matter?: JP Morgan is the largest US bank by assets and one of the most influential financial institutions globally. Its recession probability estimates are used by investors, policymakers, and central Banks as benchmarks when pricing risk during geopolitical shocks.Source: JP Morgan

Background

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the largest bank in the United States by assets, founded in its modern form through the 2000 merger of J.P. Morgan & Co. and Chase Manhattan. Headquartered in New York, it operates across investment banking, commercial banking, asset management, and financial services, with operations in over 100 countries. It ranks among the world's most systemically important financial institutions.

In the Iran conflict, JP Morgan became one of Wall Street's most-cited recession monitors. The bank raised its US recession probability estimate to 35%, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption as the primary variable . Alongside Goldman Sachs, it projected Brent Crude at $110-130 per barrel under a prolonged conflict scenario. As Wall Street continued pricing in a long war , JP Morgan's forecasts shaped investor expectations.

The bank's warnings carry particular weight because its models combine oil supply data with financial contagion risk. A Strait of Hormuz closure severe enough to sustain $130 oil would, by JP Morgan's own estimate, tip a US economy already under tariff pressure into contraction, making its recession calls a live benchmark for global markets tracking the conflict's economic toll.

How the World Sees Them

China

China, as the world's largest oil importer, monitors JP Morgan's Hormuz disruption models closely. A sustained $130 barrel scenario would erode Chinese growth margins and force the People's Bank to respond to imported inflation.

Europe

European investors rely on JP Morgan's oil price models to hedge energy exposure, given the continent's acute vulnerability to LNG and crude supply disruption. Its $110-130 barrel projection drove repricing across European energy futures within hours.

Gulf States

Gulf oil exporters view JP Morgan's forecasts with ambivalence: high oil prices boost revenue, but a JP Morgan-called recession in the US would collapse demand and undermine the very price elevation the conflict created.

United States

JP Morgan's recession forecasts are closely tracked by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury as a private-sector barometer of macro risk. Its 35% recession call during the Hormuz crisis added pressure on policymakers weighing intervention costs against economic fallout.