David Axe
Defence journalist at CEPA; authored April 2026 analysis that Ukraine's oil strike campaign has delivered only 0.46% damage to Russian revenue.
Last refreshed: 11 April 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
If Ukraine's oil strikes have cost Russia just 0.46% of revenue, what are they actually for?
Latest on David Axe
- How effective have Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil infrastructure actually been?
- A CEPA analysis by David Axe found 130 Ukrainian strikes in 2025 delivered only a 6% export reduction and $863 million in damage against $189 billion in annual Russian oil revenue, or 0.46% of the base.Source: CEPA/RUSI
- Why is Ukraine still striking oil ports if the economic impact is minimal?
- CEPA analyst David Axe notes Ukrainian targeters select lightly-defended terminals for visible footage rather than hardened core infrastructure. The strategic value is narrative and political signalling, not direct budget impact.Source: CEPA
Background
David Axe published an April 2026 analysis for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) assessing that Ukraine's 130 refinery and port strikes in 2025 delivered only a 6% export reduction against 2024 volumes. Total damage was estimated at $863 million against roughly $189 billion in annual Russian oil revenue, or 0.46% of the base. His analysis drew on RUSI research published the same month.
Axe is a defence correspondent and analyst who has written extensively for Forbes, The Daily Beast, and War Is Boring before moving to CEPA. He combines open-source intelligence analysis with traditional reporting on defence acquisition and military operations. His Ukraine strike campaign analysis contextualised the 6 April Novorossiysk strike as significant for visibility rather than budget impact: at the 2025 tempo, Ukraine would require over two centuries of strike operations to match a single year of Russian oil revenue.
His finding is that Ukrainian targeters are selecting lightly-defended terminals for visible damage, leaving hardened core infrastructure intact. The CEPA piece also noted separately that Fire Point, manufacturer of the Flamingo cruise missile, was reportedly under a NABU corruption investigation, with only nine Flamingos fired in six months.
