Daan Struyven
Goldman Sachs head of oil research; Wall Street's most-watched voice on energy prices.
Last refreshed: 30 March 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic
Will Goldman's $147.50 oil forecast become the call that triggered a US recession?
Latest on Daan Struyven
- Who is Daan Struyven?
- Daan Struyven is Goldman Sachs's head of oil research, based in New York. He is Wall Street's most widely cited commodity analyst during the 2026 Iran conflict, having issued the forecast that Brent Crude could exceed its 2008 record of $147.50 within 60 days.Source: Goldman Sachs
- What did Goldman Sachs predict for oil prices in 2026?
- Goldman Sachs' oil research head Daan Struyven warned in March 2026 that Brent Crude could surpass the 2008 intraday record of $147.50 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz flows remained depressed for 60 days. Brent had already peaked at $126 before the forecast was issued.Source: Goldman Sachs
- What is Goldman Sachs recession probability for 2026?
- On 23 March 2026, Daan Struyven raised Goldman Sachs' US recession probability to 25%, driven by sustained oil price elevation from the Iran conflict supply disruption cutting global output by 8 million barrels per day.Source: Goldman Sachs
- How does Goldman's oil forecast compare to Oxford Economics?
- Goldman Sachs forecast Brent could reach $147.50; Oxford Economics separately calculated that $140 per barrel triggers a mild global recession at negative 0.7% GDP growth. The two firms set complementary benchmarks: Goldman on the price ceiling, Oxford Economics on the recession threshold.Source: Oxford Economics / Goldman Sachs
- Why does Daan Struyven's oil forecast matter?
- Goldman Sachs' commodity desk both analyses and trades oil, so Struyven's public forecasts reflect institutional positioning. His 25% recession call has become the figure most cited in the US congressional debate over the $200 billion Iran war supplemental funding request.Source: Goldman Sachs
Background
Daan Struyven is Goldman Sachs's head of oil research, one of Wall Street's most-watched commodity analysts. Based in New York, he leads the bank's energy pricing models and has served as Goldman's public voice on oil markets through the 2026 Iran conflict, issuing successive upward revisions as Strait of Hormuz flows collapsed.
Struyven's two headline calls defined the market's trajectory. On 21 March 2026 he warned Brent could exceed its 2008 all-time intraday record of $147.50 within 60 days if Hormuz flows stayed depressed. On 23 March he raised US recession probability to 25%, driven by sustained oil price elevation from the supply shock that cut global output by a record 8 million barrels per day.
Goldman's commodity desk both analyses and trades the markets it covers, so Struyven's public calls reflect internal positioning as much as analysis. Oxford Economics separately pegged $140 per barrel as the recession trigger, framing Struyven's forecast as the threshold that governments and central banks must now price.
