Common Questions

Who is Benjamin Lockwood?

Benjamin Lockwood is an economist who co-authored a Brookings Institution working paper with Anton Korinek finding that roughly three-quarters of US federal tax revenue is derived from labour taxation, and that sufficient AI-driven displacement would force a structural shift toward consumption-based taxation.Source: Brookings Institution

What did the Korinek Lockwood Brookings paper find?

The Brookings working paper by Anton Korinek and Benjamin Lockwood found approximately 75% of US federal tax revenue comes from labour taxation. It argued that if AI displaces enough workers, the US would need to shift toward consumption-based taxes to sustain federal revenue.Source: Brookings Institution

How does AI threaten the US tax base?

Because the majority of US federal tax revenue derives from taxes on labour, including income and payroll taxes, large-scale AI displacement of workers would shrink the tax base substantially. Lockwood and Korinek's Brookings paper models this structural risk and argues consumption taxes would need to compensate.Source: Brookings Institution

Background

Benjamin Lockwood is an economist whose research focuses on taxation, labour markets, and public finance. He co-authored a Brookings Institution working paper with Anton Korinek examining the broader fiscal consequences of AI-driven labour displacement on the US federal revenue base .

The Korinek-Lockwood paper found roughly three-quarters of US federal tax revenue derives from labour taxation, including income and payroll levies. It argues that sufficient AI-driven displacement would force a structural shift toward consumption-based taxation, a finding cited alongside evidence of IRS staffing cuts of up to 31% and projections of $159 billion in lost revenue over the coming decade .

The paper sits at the intersection of two live debates: how fast AI will displace workers, and whether existing tax architecture can survive that transition. Bernie Sanders and bipartisan Senate proposals have both drawn on this body of fiscal analysis to frame legislative responses to AI-driven employment change .

More questions

What is the difference between the Lockwood-Korinek and AEI positions on AI and tax?

Lockwood and Korinek project structural fiscal disruption if AI displaces labour at scale, arguing the US tax base would require fundamental redesign toward consumption taxes. The American Enterprise Institute counters that current AI tools act as skill equalisers and that displacement forecasts are overstated.Source: Brookings Institution / AEI

How the World Sees Them

United States

Labour taxation underpins roughly three-quarters of federal revenue, making the US fiscal base acutely vulnerable to AI-driven displacement. The Lockwood-Korinek findings add technical weight to Senate proposals to study and redesign the tax system before displacement accelerates.

Academic economists

Lockwood and Korinek's Brookings paper joins a growing body of research stress-testing whether post-war tax architecture can survive automation. The paper's consumption-tax thesis is contested but increasingly cited as displacement evidence accumulates.

Conservative think-tanks

The American Enterprise Institute has pushed back on displacement forecasts it deems alarmist, arguing AI currently acts as a skill equaliser. Lockwood's fiscal modelling occupies the opposing end of that spectrum, projecting structural disruption to the revenue base.