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Anouk Honoré

OIES Senior Research Fellow; found European industrial gas demand recovery 'very limited' after 2022 shock.

Last refreshed: 8 May 2026 · Appears in 1 active topic

Key Question

Has European industry already used up its capacity to cut gas consumption in a crisis?

Timeline for Anouk Honoré

#2229 Jun

Mentioned in: OIES base case becomes its stress case

European Energy Markets
#912 May

Mentioned in: Storage 35.4% met, 80% trajectory missed

European Energy Markets
#87 May

Mentioned in: EU storage at 34.3% before 12 May test

European Energy Markets
#730 Apr

Found European industrial gas demand recovery prospects very limited after 2022 shock

European Energy Markets: OIES frames Iran shock as multi-year
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Common Questions
Has European industry already cut as much gas as it can?
OIES Senior Research Fellow Anouk Honoré found in April 2026 that European industrial gas demand recovery prospects are 'very limited' after the 2022 shock. The 15% YoY reduction achieved in 2022/23 came from efficiency gains and fuel switching; further cuts would require plant closures, not efficiency improvements.Source: Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148
Why can't Europe repeat its 2022 gas savings response in a future crisis?
Anouk Honoré at OIES argues that the 2022 industrial demand reduction of roughly 15% YoY relied on efficiency and fuel-switching headroom that has since been exhausted. Further reductions would require permanent plant closures and industrial relocation, not short-term conservation, meaning the demand-side buffer cannot be reactivated.Source: Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148
What does OIES say about European gas demand in 2026?
OIES Issue 148 contributor Anouk Honoré concludes that European industrial gas demand recovery after the 2022 shock is structurally limited. Combined with the Iran Hormuz disruption, this means any new supply shock transmits directly to storage levels and wholesale prices without a demand-side buffer.Source: Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148

Background

Anouk Honoré is a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, where her research covers European gas demand, industrial consumption, and the structural consequences of the 2022 supply shock. Her paper in Oxford Energy Forum Issue 148, published April 2026, found that prospects for European industrial gas demand recovery are 'very limited' after the 2022 shock, an assessment that now compounds with the Iran disruption.

Honoré's finding is structurally significant for European supply modelling: it means the demand-side buffer that absorbed the 2022 crisis has already been used. European industry cut gas consumption roughly 15% year-on-year in 2022 through efficiency gains and fuel switching. Her analysis concludes that recovery from those levels is constrained by plant closures, relocation decisions, and capital reallocation that cannot be reversed on a short cycle. Any future disruption, including the Hormuz shock, therefore transmits directly to storage fill and TTF rather than being absorbed by demand reduction.

This removes the demand-side safety valve from EU injection planning assumptions. If storage lands at 72-73% on 1 November rather than 80%, there is no industrial demand offset available to cushion the winter shortfall, unlike in 2022/23 where emergency demand savings provided a 15% YoY cushion.

Source Material
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies