6JUN

Cook moves New Hampshire towards Sununu

2 min read

12:16UTC

Cook shifted New Hampshire's Senate race from Lean Democrat to Toss Up on 15 September, calling Republican spending there a flashing red light for Democrats.

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PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

Cook moved New Hampshire towards Republicans, the one state where their party money and ratings align.

Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire's Senate contest out of Lean Democrat and into Toss Up on 15 September, a shift towards Republicans⁠¹. Republican John E. Sununu, a former US senator who served from 2003 to 2008, faces Democratic Representative Chris Pappas for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving.

Cook tied the move to money, writing that "the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats". It also conceded that the race "could still move back in Democrats' direction before Election Day". The filings show that spending. Sununu received the fourth-biggest share of the Republican committee's August coordination, and New Hampshire was among the five Senate races No Going Back PAC funded in its latest week.

That makes New Hampshire the one state where the NRSC's August money and a rating move point the same way. Cook framed the contest as a test of whether Sununu's own brand can escape the drag of Trump's unpopularity.

New Hampshire held its 8 September primary under a student-ID exclusion that a federal judge declined to block, while leaving the general election open to a different ruling.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

New Hampshire's Senate race has moved from 'leaning Democrat' to 'too close to call', according to The Cook Political Report, which pointed to Republican spending on John E. Sununu's campaign. He is trying to win back the seat he held from 2003 to 2009, running against Democrat Chris Pappas for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is vacating.

Sources:Cook Political Report

Mentions:Cook Political Report →New Hampshire →NO GOING BACK PAC INC. →Jeanne Shaheen →Chris Pappas →John E. Sununu →Chris Sununu →

First Reported In

Update #18 · Republicans spend first, Democrats hold cash

Cook Political Report· 24 Sept 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Cook moves New Hampshire towards Sununu

New Hampshire is the one state where heavy Republican party spending and a rating move point the same way.

Led to

Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats

Cook reversed its September New Hampshire shift towards Republicans.

Occurred 14 Oct 2026

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Different Perspectives

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Judge Thomas Schroeder, US District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina

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Stephen Richer, Republican former Maricopa County recorder

Richer submitted a brief on 20 October supporting the voting groups on documentary proof of citizenship at registration. He takes no position on the separate 90-day voter-removal question.

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WinSenate, the ad-buying affiliate of Senate Majority PAC

WinSenate began buying Kansas airtime against Roger Marshall on 10 October and had reported $8.14m there by 20 October. Marshall held $922,088 in cash on 30 September and the NRSC gave him no party money in September, so the Democratic side is spending where the Republican committee has not.

County Board of Arlington County

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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.