A Rigamer poll taken 15 to 16 June put Julia Letlow at 40.2% against John Fleming's 38.2%, inside the margin of error, after a Kaplan survey in early June had her ahead 52 to 37 1. Letlow's double-digit lead in the Louisiana Senate runoff has evaporated in a fortnight. Letlow then declined Fleming's challenge to three debates, citing time with voters. The runoff falls on 27 June, after this briefing publishes, so what follows is a trajectory rather than a result.
Louisiana runs an all-party primary, in which the top two finishers advance regardless of party. Bill Cassidy came third, leaving two Republicans and no Democrat in the runoff , so the contest pits money against insurgency rather than red against blue. The Accountability Project, a pro-Letlow super PAC reported to be aligned with Governor Jeff Landry, has now committed more than $6 million in independent expenditures, outside spending that the law bars from coordinating with a campaign, after its first $1 million filing on 5 June . Fleming has closed to a tie on almost nothing.
Texas produced the same shape last month. Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn by 28 points in the Texas Senate runoff despite a nine-to-one spending disadvantage , a result that pushed Cook and Sabato to move Texas Senate to Leans Republican the next day . Runoff electorates are tiny and motivation-driven, the exact terrain where an insurgent with intensity can erase a lead built on name recognition and endorsements. A Letlow win on $6 million of outside money would reassure committees that the cheque still clears; a Fleming win would mark two straight runoffs where it did not.
