Reform UK lost 22 councillors in the 14 days after polling against an elected base of 2,126 , per political scientist Mark Pack's detailed tally. The breakdown runs five lost seats, eight resignations, four defections, five suspensions. At 1.57 departures per day the annualised rate sits at roughly 573, or 27% of the elected base, against Reform's own projected 10% that would have implied 200 over a year.
The NatCen Local Election Cohort Study baseline for any newly elected party runs 4-6% in the first year. Reform's 14-day rate annualised is roughly five times that figure. Defections, the rarest of the four categories, are the qualitative signal: movement to Restore Britain and to independents indicates ideological rejection rather than personal exit. Suspensions are the second analytical signal because suspended councillors continue to count in the headline seat total but cannot vote on cabinet or committee decisions. The party's effective working numbers on affected councils have therefore dropped further than the public count shows.
This matters for the live LGR judicial reviews running in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk. Committee balances on the three challenger councils are shifting before the Administrative Court has heard a substantive application. If the rate holds to 22 a fortnight, roughly 40 to 50 will have departed by the end of June, against a party simultaneously running three judicial reviews and a Standards Commissioner investigation into its leader. Defections are also the category most likely to compound: each public departure produces evidence other waverers cite as justification.
