3JUN

Reform loses Old Catton to the Tories

1 min read

10:25UTC

Conservative Antony Little gained Old Catton from Reform UK on 16 July, ten weeks after Reform won the Norfolk seat by 1,006 votes; the Greens surged into second and Labour fell to 5.2%.

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Key takeaway

Reform lost a Norfolk seat it won by 1,006 votes in May, with The Greens consolidating the anti-Reform vote.

Conservative Antony Little gained the Old Catton division of Norfolk County Council from Reform UK on 16 July 2026, ten weeks after Reform won it by 1,006 votes. Little took the seat with 973 votes (35.5%), the Green Party surged into second on 32.7%, up 14 points, and Reform's Sue Lawn fell to third on 19.9%; Labour collapsed to 5.2% on a 39.8% turnout⁠¹.

The vacancy came when Mark Tucker, who had won the seat for Reform in May, resigned within four weeks citing poor health⁠². That churn is not new: Reform lost 22 councillors in the fortnight after polling day and roughly 40 by early July. Old Catton is where the attrition finally showed as a lost seat rather than a resignation tally.

Norfolk's anti-Reform vote split three ways in May; here it consolidated behind The Greens as the single viable challenger, lifting them from fourth into contention a point behind Little. Where Reform's opponents co-ordinate, its May margins do not survive a mid-term test.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Just ten weeks after Reform UK first won the Old Catton council seat in Norfolk, the Conservatives took it back. Antony Little won for the Conservatives, the Green Party jumped into second place, and Labour's vote collapsed to just 5.2%. The seat became vacant because the Reform councillor who won it in May resigned citing poor health. A single council by-election does not change who runs the country, but it is watched closely as an early test of how durable Reform's gains really are.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Reform's May 2026 majority in Old Catton was built on a first-time protest vote against the two main parties. First-time protest votes tend to be softer than votes for an established party, because voters have no record of the new party actually running anything before deciding whether to stick with it.

Councillor Mark Tucker's resignation within weeks of winning, which triggered this by-election, removed the one local figure whose personal vote might have anchored Reform's support, leaving the seat to be recontested on national polling dynamics rather than incumbency.

Sources:Democracy Club / Norfolk County Council declaration·Democracy Club / Norfolk County Council declaration

Mentions:Reform UK →Green Party →Norfolk County Council →UKIP →Old Catton →Labour Party →Conservative Party →

First Reported In

Update #13 · England's council map redrawn as five sue

Democracy Club / Norfolk County Council declaration· 24 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Reform loses 22 councillors in 14 days

Reform's post-election councillor attrition tracked since May surfaced at the ballot box in Old Catton's loss.

Occurred 21 May 2026

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Reform's councillor losses start to slow

Reform's roughly 40 cumulative departures by early July presaged the Old Catton defeat.

Occurred 2 Jul 2026

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This Event

Reform loses Old Catton to the Tories

Old Catton is the first ballot-box evidence that Reform's May gains are soft where the party must defend.

Led to

Clacton's ballot paper splits the right four ways

Old Catton showed a consolidated anti-Reform vote beats Reform, the opposite of Clacton's four-way split.

Occurred 17 Jul 2026

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Different Perspectives

Scottish National Party / John Swinney

Swinney told the SNP conference in Aberdeen on 17 October that Scotland is ready for independence, but set no referendum date, bill or Section 30 request. He launched a new campaign instead and extended the £2 bus fare cap to the north east from April 2027.

Liberal Democrats / Ed Davey

Davey ruled out a national partnership with the Greens on 19 October after their Brighton conference passed a "Zionism is racism" motion, and wrote to two Jewish community bodies. He left untouched the councils the two parties already run together.

Reform UK / Richard Tice

Tice alleged ITV's reporter used false details to get a press-office job and said ITV had "likely broken the law", telling members not to speak to it until it apologises. Reform also opened investigations into members, with some suspensions, so the party is contesting the broadcaster and disciplining councillors at once.

Rhun ap Iorwerth / Welsh Government (Plaid Cymru)

Ap Iorwerth presented six priorities to the Senedd on 22 September without numeric targets or a named partner party, promising to work across the chamber where there is common ground. He says his government will be judged on results.

Michael Marra / Scottish Labour

Marra won the leadership on 19 September, and three days later his 17 MSPs backed Swinney's right-to-decide motion once their child-poverty amendment was written in. He says Scottish Labour's task is to tell voters what it stands for.

Andy Burnham / Labour Party

Burnham told conference in Liverpool on 29 September that Labour's next manifesto will commit to changing the electoral system, and invited every party into a National Commission on Electoral Reform. He has not named a replacement system, and no chair or remit has been published.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.