12OCT

Brent spikes on the strike, then gives it back

2 min read

10:59UTC

Brent crude spiked intraday to roughly $109.98 on Friday 11 September on news of the pipeline attack, then settled the same session at $104.61, down 2.81 per cent.

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Brent Crude spiked intraday to roughly $109.98 on Friday 11 September 2026, around 6 per cent higher overnight on news of the attack on the Saudi east-west crude line and its highest since early May, then settled the same session at $104.61, down 2.81 per cent⁠¹. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, settled at $100.05, down 2.37 per cent⁠².

Both numbers are Friday's, and both close a session that began with the pipeline news. Brent settled at $71.99 on 26 June, and Friday's close sits far above that on the same benchmark. The US Energy Information Administration had raised its forecast for Middle East production shut in during the fourth quarter and pushed its recovery date into 2027 two days earlier, on 9 September.

A spike that unwinds inside a session says traders priced a disruption to a route rather than a loss of barrels. Saudi crude still reaches the water, and the Ministry of Energy has named neither a damaged segment nor a restart date, so the quantity actually removed from the market is unknown to the people pricing it. Futures markets do not trade on Saturday or Sunday. Monday 14 September is the first settlement that can price anything that happened over the weekend.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil is bought and sold on futures exchanges, where a price moves all day and then a single closing figure, the settlement, goes in the record. On Friday 11 September news of the attack on the Saudi pipeline pushed Brent Crude, the main global benchmark, up to around $109.98 at one point. By the close it had fallen back to $104.61, which was below Thursday's closing price. The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $100.05. So the market got excited and then changed its mind inside a single day. Exchanges are shut at the weekend, which means anything that happened on Saturday or Sunday has to wait until Monday to show up in a price at all.

What could happen next?

Meaning
A spike that unwinds inside one session prices a disruption to a route rather than a loss of barrels.
Immediate · Assessed
Risk
Two days of weekend news sit unpriced, and the first settlement able to carry them is Monday 14 September.
Immediate · Assessed
Consequence
A forecaster raising its shut-in estimate while the market lowers its close leaves buyers hedging against two different views of the same quarter.
Short term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from Türkiye

Türkiye

LeftRight

The distance between the intraday high and the close is where the risk premium actually sat. Both readings belong to Friday 11 September: a gain of roughly 6 per cent overnight, and a close 2.81 per cent below the previous settlement. On those two published figures, and this is Lowdown's arithmetic rather than a sourced statement, the price finished the day lower than it started it.

A disruption to a route prices differently from a loss of barrels. The Saudi Ministry of Energy has named no damaged segment and no restart date, so the volume actually removed is unknown to the people setting the price, and an unknown outage of a line that was running under capacity is a weak premium to hold overnight.

Exchanges do not settle on Saturday or Sunday. Everything that happened after Friday's close waits for Monday 14 September, which is the first settlement that can carry it.

Consensus view: The US Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, raised its forecast for Middle East production shut in during the fourth quarter to 5.7 million barrels a day on 9 September and moved its recovery date into the second quarter of 2027. That is a forecast about duration.

Counter-view: The futures market took the opposite view of the same week. Friday's Brent settlement closed 2.81 per cent under the previous one, on the session that opened with the pipeline news, so traders paid less for a barrel at the close than before the attack was known.

Key tension: Whether the settlement reflects confidence that Saudi crude still reaches the water by other routes, or thin conviction going into two days when nobody could trade, which the published prices cannot separate.

Sources:Anadolu Agency·Anadolu Agency

Mentions:Brent Crude →West Texas Intermediate →Petroline →Saudi Arabia →EIA →Anadolu Agency →Department of Energy →West Texas →Texas →

First Reported In

Update #178 · Saudi bypass hit, and Riyadh holds fire

Anadolu Agency· 13 Sept 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Drones hit the pipeline built to dodge Hormuz

Brent's overnight spike and Friday settlement priced the attack on Petroline.

Occurred 10 Sept 2026

Read story →

EIA pushes oil recovery into 2027

The EIA's raised shut-in forecast sat two days behind the price move.

Occurred 8 Sept 2026

Read story →

This Event

Brent spikes on the strike, then gives it back

The market priced the loss of Saudi Arabia's overland export route and handed most of the move back within one session.

Different Perspectives

Government of Latvia

Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.

India's Ministry of External Affairs

After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.

Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief

Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.

Donald Trump and the US Treasury

The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.

Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak

After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.