Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
3AUG

TTF settles EUR 46.44 inside tight weekly range

3 min read
10:16UTC

TTF held EUR 43.4 to 47.4/MWh across the week to 4 May, settling EUR 46.44 on Monday. Month-to-date down 7.27%, year-on-year up 40.53%; the France-Germany power spread held at EUR 55.75.

← Back to Russia's costliest month, smallest gainJump to analysis ↓
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

TTF held a EUR 4 weekly range while the France-Germany May-26 power spread stayed at EUR 55.75/MWh.

TTF front-month closed at EUR 46.44/MWh on the Monday 4 May session, inside a weekly range of EUR 43.4 to 47.4/MWh per ICE data 1. Month-to-date the contract is down 7.27%; year-on-year it is up 40.53%. The France May-26 power contract traded at EUR 21.80/MWh versus Germany May-26 at EUR 77.55/MWh; the EUR 55.75 spread first flagged on 28 April held through 4 May with no compression.

A tight weekly range is what European desks expect when the supply book is settled. The settled read holds across two prior anchors: the EUR 41.67/MWh six-week low on 17 April and the recovery after Iran's re-closure of Hormuz . The weekly range across 30 April to 4 May sits inside both of those reference points, and that compression is what makes the divergence with the storage-pace data sharp rather than incremental.

France's nuclear-led baseload prints at EUR 21.80/MWh while Germany's gas-and-renewables mix prints at EUR 77.55/MWh, and the EUR 55.75 spread has held without compression for nearly a week. That persistence indicates the spread is structural rather than a one-session dislocation; it tracks the underlying generation mix and the gas-to-power transmission channel rather than near-term wind or temperature noise. The TTF range and the power spread together describe a market reading aggregate supply as resolved and the bilateral generation-mix gap as durable.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

France and Germany are connected by high-voltage electricity cables. France generates a lot of cheap nuclear power, but the cables between the two countries can only carry a limited amount. As a result, electricity in France is much cheaper than in Germany right now, France's May contract is around 21 euros per megawatt-hour, Germany's is 77 euros. The 55-euro gap has held steady all week. This gap matters because it shows how fragmented the European electricity market is: cheap power in one country cannot automatically offset expensive power in a neighbouring one, and German industry pays far more for electricity than French industry does.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    German gas-to-power generation bidding at EUR 70-80/MWh marginal cost into the balancing market sustains gas demand from power generation through May, reducing the volume available for storage injection and putting indirect upward pressure on TTF spot.

  • Opportunity

    If the Aurora forecast of spread compression by late May proves correct, German solar hours lengthening from May, gas-to-power demand falls and frees up TTF supply for storage injection, narrowing the pace gap from the power-generation side.

Sources:Trading Economics / ICE·Trading Economics / ICE
Mentions:Strait of Hormuz Toll System →TTF →France →Germany →Iran →ICE Endex →
First Reported In

Update #7 · Storage pace 0.21 vs 0.257; floor not yet met

Trading Economics / ICE· 4 May 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Storage at 33.06% trails 80% November floor
The storage pace gap (event 0) and the TTF weekly settlement range (event 8) reveal the divergence between market pricing and injection arithmetic.
Occurred 2 May 2026
Read story →
This Event
TTF settles EUR 46.44 inside tight weekly range
The contract narrowing alongside an underlying storage-pace shortfall is the data setup that lets the headline diverge from the arithmetic.
Led to
TTF holds EUR 43-47 through Hormuz week
TTF band of EUR 43-47/MWh held through week 30 Apr-4 May (ID:3037) and continued to hold through Project Freedom events
Occurred 8 May 2026
Read story →
TTF breaks band on Trump life-support line
TTF settled EUR 46.44 on 4 May; the 12 May EUR 47.23 is the next leg of price discovery above the prior week's settle.
Occurred 12 May 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Belarus
Belarus
Minsk announced completion of its own 37th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade near Gomel, under plans dating to August 2025 rather than a response to any single frontline event this window, keeping its hedge of hosting the war without formally joining Russia's mobilisation drive.
European Union / Operation IRINI states
European Union / Operation IRINI states
Italy, Greece and Poland boarded the sanctioned tanker Toa Payoh off Pantelleria under a standing EU mandate rather than a national decision, extending enforcement from the Channel and Baltic and the Black Sea and Azov into the Mediterranean. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto praised the crew; the captain's refusal to produce documentation left detention unconfirmed.
Poland and the NATO eastern flank
Poland and the NATO eastern flank
Warsaw's Coordination Team said explicitly its forces tracked the 30 July missile incursion and were ready to shoot it down, then flew air cover for an EU tanker interdiction three days later. Poland is simultaneously the war's nearest spillover victim and a contributor to enforcing sanctions against the state causing that spillover.
Ukraine (government, defence establishment and civilians)
Ukraine (government, defence establishment and civilians)
Kyiv runs its manpower crisis through acting Defence Minister Yevhen Khmara, whose formal appointment waits for parliament's 18 August return, and a fortnight-old Commander-in-Chief, Mykhailo Drapatyi. Reported attacks on enlistment officers rose from 5 cases in 2022 to 341 in 2025, reaching Odesa's Territorial Recruitment Centre staff directly on 2 August.
Kremlin and Russian domestic economic voices
Kremlin and Russian domestic economic voices
Moscow has not addressed July's advance-rate collapse or Sberbank's OFZ warning; Novak's diary ran to OPEC+ quota diplomacy with no diesel item logged since 15 July. Economist Nikolai Korzhenevsky calls the Central Bank's RUB 2.3tn in bank lending effectively deficit monetisation, a framing Sberbank's Skvortsov, with his own institutional interest, has not disputed.
IAEA (Rafael Grossi)
IAEA (Rafael Grossi)
IAEA inspectors logged Zaporizhzhia's 22nd loss of off-site power, ten of them in the last three months, after a thunderstorm knocked out the plant's sole surviving backup line. Grossi reads the accelerating frequency, not any single outage, as the safety signal now that the plant's redundancy is exhausted.