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Is Britain Actually Broke?
20AUG

PPF index rises to 133.0% funded in July

2 min read
17:53UTC

The Pension Protection Fund put company defined-benefit schemes at 133.0% funded on 31 July, a £271.3bn surplus across 4,838 schemes, because rising yields cut what those schemes owe.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

Company pension schemes reached 133.0% funded at 31 July, a £271.3bn surplus across 4,838 schemes.

The Pension Protection Fund (PPF), the statutory body that pays compensation when a company pension scheme fails, put its 7800 index at 133.0% funded at 31 July 2026, up from 131.1% at the end of June⁠1. The index is the standard monthly read on the 4,838 remaining defined-benefit schemes in the United Kingdom, the kind that promise a set retirement income rather than a pot of investments. In cash terms the aggregate surplus reached £271.3bn, against £264.0bn a month earlier, or roughly £1.33 of assets behind every £1 promised.

The PPF attributes the move to a 30 basis point rise in ten-year fixed-interest gilt yields over July, which cut the measured value of scheme liabilities by 3.1% while the value of their assets fell 1.7%⁠2. A scheme's liability is a set of payments falling due over decades, and it is valued by discounting those payments back to today using a market yield. Raise the yield and the same promise costs less to carry now, so the funding ratio improves without a penny changing hands.

That is worth stating plainly for anyone whose pension statement looks healthier this month. The promised payout does not change when the index moves; what changes is the price of carrying it. A scheme funded at 133.0% still owes exactly what it owed in June.

This desk declared its trigger on the pensions ledger at a funding ratio below 110%, and the July reading sits 23 points above it⁠3. The same yield move that lifted it landed on the government's own borrowing in the opposite direction, at the auctions the Debt Management Office ran through the window.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A defined-benefit pension scheme promises to pay a set income in retirement. Whether it can afford to depends on the value of its assets, its investments, against its liabilities, the estimated cost of all the pensions it has promised to pay in future. The Pension Protection Fund tracks this across 4,838 such schemes. At 133.0% funded, the schemes together hold £271.3bn more in assets than their liabilities require, up from £264.0bn a month earlier. This is an aggregate figure; individual schemes can still be underfunded even while the average looks healthy.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    A rising gilt yield is not a single direction of financial distress: it improved private pension scheme funding in this release even as it raises the government's own borrowing cost elsewhere in the same window.

First Reported In

Update #2 · Three household registers, three answers

Pension Protection Fund· 20 Aug 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
PPF index rises to 133.0% funded in July
The measured improvement comes almost entirely from how future pension promises are valued, not from schemes holding more money than they did in June.
Different Perspectives
Institute for Fiscal Studies
Institute for Fiscal Studies
The IFS puts about £25bn a year of the government's defence spending path still unfunded against plans announced so far, and separately relays the OBR's costing of the triple lock at £15.5bn a year by 2029-30, roughly triple its original £5.2bn projection. It presents both as fiscal arithmetic, not policy recommendation.
Resolution Foundation
Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation projects typical non-pensioner incomes rising 1.2% in 2026-27, and 4.7% for the poorer half of non-pensioner families, before frozen tax thresholds and rising council tax and housing costs erode those gains later in the decade. It reads the tax route out of Britain's debt position as one that falls unevenly on households rather than on the state.
Institute of Economic Affairs
Institute of Economic Affairs
The IEA argues total managed expenditure averaging 44.5% of GDP through the decade is unsustainable, and that holding spending growth to inflation until 2029-30 would improve the fiscal position by £40bn. This is a campaigning position from the free-market right, not a costed forecast like the OBR's.
Structural case for reading the fall as genuine improvement
Structural case for reading the fall as genuine improvement
The debt ratio fell, borrowing fell year-on-year in cash terms by £6.0bn over the financial year to date, and two gilt auctions cleared at bid-to-cover ratios of 3.39 and 3.58 times with no sign of buyers demanding a premium for risk. On that reading, the state of Britain's public finances has not deteriorated this fortnight.
Office for Students
Office for Students
OfS's November 2025 modelled scenario puts 45% of providers in deficit for 2025-26; its separate May 2026 annual report, counting what providers actually filed for the identical year, puts the figure at 36.6%. Neither publication reconciles the two for the reader.
Regulator of Social Housing
Regulator of Social Housing
The RSH's Q1 survey of 195 landlords found cash interest cover falling to 59% and described recovery as "slower than previously forecast", while recording the same sector raising £4.3bn and lifting its twelve-month development forecast to £16.0bn, a three-year high.