Brent Crude traded at $110.47 per barrel, retreating from the $116 peak on 28 March. The pullback may reflect Ceasefire hopes from the Islamabad talks, though the fundamental supply picture has not changed. The Strait of Hormuz remains over 90% below pre-war transit volumes at 53 weekly transits against a baseline of 966.
The price remains roughly 64% above pre-war levels of $67.41 per barrel. Analysts had warned that $150 per barrel was possible if the strait stays closed another month. The Islamabad Accord's immediate-reopening provision is the first diplomatic instrument that directly addresses the oil price mechanism, which may explain why markets have responded to the framework's existence even before Iran has accepted it.
The modest retreat should not be mistaken for normalisation. The IEA, IMF, and World Bank jointly described this as one of the largest supply shortages in energy market history . That assessment has not changed.
