2APR

Ryanair Warns of European Fuel Shortage

2 min read

08:35UTC

Europe's largest low-cost airline says jet fuel could run short from May. The benchmark has doubled to $195 per barrel.

← Back to The Last Door Closes Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

A quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf; shortages loom from May.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned on 1 April that European jet fuel supply could run short from May if the war continues past April ¹. 25-30% of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Persian Gulf. The global jet fuel benchmark has more than doubled to roughly $195 per barrel, up from $85-90 pre-war. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel; the remaining 20% is exposed at current market rates. Summer flight cancellations are possible.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Europe's largest budget airline says jet fuel could run short from May. About a quarter of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Gulf. The benchmark price has more than doubled to $195 per barrel. Airlines hedge fuel costs by buying contracts in advance. Ryanair hedged 80% of its fuel needs at lower prices. The problem is that hedges run out. When they do, the airline must buy at market prices. If supply also runs short, some routes stop flying. Summer 2026 is when that risk lands.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-leaning sources from United States

United States

LeftRight

At $195 per barrel, jet fuel is roughly 130% above its pre-war $85 level. Ryanair's hedged 80% provides a buffer that expires at different points through Q2. The unhedged 20% at current market rates adds roughly €2-3 per passenger per flight, before any supply shortage premium.

European jet fuel refineries sourcing from Gulf crudes face a structural delay: refinery product from non-Gulf crude runs at lower volume because European refineries were optimised for Gulf light sweet grades. Switching crude slates requires 4-6 weeks of operational adjustment. If the war continues past mid-April, European jet fuel supply will not recover before peak summer travel demand regardless of what happens at Hormuz.

Consensus view: IATA and the Oxford Energy Institute both project European jet fuel margins tightening from late April if the conflict extends, with some regional airports facing allocation constraints rather than outright shortage. The risk is differential: smaller European carriers with less hedging capacity face operational pressure before Ryanair does.

Counter-view: Argus Media commodity analysts note European refiners are already diverting middle distillate output toward jet fuel from diesel, providing a partial offset. The supply constraint may be less severe than O'Leary's warning implies for the European market specifically.

Key tension: Whether European refinery flexibility can offset the Gulf supply gap through the summer travel peak, or whether the gap is large enough that even full European refinery optimisation cannot close it.

Sources:War on the Rocks

Mentions:Ryanair →Michael O'Leary →Russia →Bangladesh →Shah Gas Field →Brent Crude →Persian Gulf →

First Reported In

Update #55 · The Last Door Closes

War on the Rocks· 2 Apr 2026

Read original →

Different Perspectives

South Korean financial markets

South Korea, which imports virtually all its crude oil, is absorbing the war's economic transmission most acutely among non-belligerents. The second KOSPI circuit breaker in four sessions — with Samsung down over 10% and SK Hynix down 12.3% — reflects an industrial economy unable to reprice energy costs that have risen 72% in ten days. The market response indicates Korean industry cannot sustain oil above $100 per barrel without margin compression across manufacturing, semiconductors, and shipping.

Migrant worker communities in the Gulf

The first confirmed civilian deaths in Saudi Arabia — one Indian and one Bangladeshi killed, twelve Bangladeshis wounded — fell on communities with no voice in the military decisions that placed them in harm's way. Migrant workers live near military installations because that housing is affordable, not by choice. Bangladesh and India face the dilemma of needing to protect nationals who cannot easily leave a war zone while depending on Gulf remittances that fund a substantial share of their domestic economies.

Azerbaijan — President Ilham Aliyev

Aliyev treats the Nakhchivan strikes as a direct act of war against Azerbaijani sovereignty, placing armed forces on full combat readiness and demanding an Iranian explanation. The response is calibrated to maximise international sympathy while stopping short of military retaliation — Baku cannot fight Iran alone and needs either Turkish or NATO backing to credibly deter further strikes.

Oil-importing nations (Japan, South Korea, India)

The Hormuz closure is an existential threat. Japan, South Korea, and India receive the majority of their crude through the strait — they will bear the heaviest economic cost of a war they had no part in.

Global South governments (Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa)

Neutrality was possible when the targets were military. 148 dead schoolgirls made it impossible — no government can explain that away to its own citizens.

Turkey

Has absorbed three Iranian ballistic missile interceptions since 4 March without invoking NATO Article 5 consultation. Each incident narrows Ankara's political room to continue absorbing without Alliance-level response.