Gulf states being directly hit by Iranian retaliation was the most consequential under-estimation in pre-strike analysis. The forecast assumed Iranian retaliation would target Israel and US bases in Iraq and the Levant, with Gulf Arab monarchies remaining peripheral. Instead, Iranian missiles reached Gulf state territory, making Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar directly exposed to the consequences of a US-Israeli military decision in which they had no formal role.
Saudi Arabia's public statement — acknowledging that the conflict 'started with US-Israeli attacks' — is not a neutral observation. It is a deliberate framing exercise designed to communicate to Tehran that Riyadh neither supported nor sanctioned the strikes and does not wish to be treated as a co-belligerent. The statement creates political distance from Washington precisely when Washington would expect allied solidarity.
The Gulf states' dilemma is structural. They host US military facilities that provide security guarantees against Iranian conventional aggression. Those same facilities are now the justification for Iranian Ballistic missile targeting of their territory. Asking the US to leave removes the security guarantee; asking the US to stay makes them a continuing target.
Qatar, which hosts Al Udeid Air Base — the largest US military facility in the Middle East — is in the sharpest position. Any Iranian strike that damages Al Udeid damages Qatari infrastructure and personnel. Qatar has historically maintained separate channels with Iran and has the diplomatic relationships to activate as a potential mediating track.
