28FEB

Iraqi militias threaten; hold fire Day 1

1 min read

19:00UTC

Iraqi Shia militia groups threatened retaliation against US military assets in Iraq and across the region following the 28 February 2026 strikes on Iran but had not attacked by end of day.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Iraqi militia restraint on 28 February likely reflects a combination of Iranian command disruption and calculation about the Iraqi government's tolerance for proxy attacks launched from its territory.

The threatening-but-holding posture of Iraqi militias on 28 February is consistent with a pattern established through 2024 and 2025: issue credible warnings, observe the US response, and calibrate action to avoid triggering direct US strikes on Iraqi sovereign territory or militia leadership.

Iraq presents a particular constraint for proxy activation. The Iraqi government — which includes both pro-Iranian and pro-Western factions — has limited tolerance for militia attacks that use Iraqi soil as a launch platform, because such attacks invite US retaliation into Iraqi territory and destabilise the central government. Militia commanders are balancing Axis of Resistance obligations against the political cost of acting in ways the Iraqi prime minister cannot defend to parliament.

The restraint may also reflect the same command disruption affecting Hezbollah: if Pakpour is confirmed dead and Quds Force command is in disarray, Iraqi militias lack the real-time coordination and authorisation they would normally receive from Tehran before a major activation. Standing orders can initiate attacks, but calibrated, multi-target operations against US bases in multiple countries require live direction.

What could happen next?

Meaning
Meaning

Sources:Al Jazeera·Al Jazeera·NPR

Mentions:Iran-Azerbaijan Conflict (2026) →

First Reported In

Update #2 · Five cities struck on opening night

Al Jazeera· 28 Feb 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Iraqi militias threaten; hold fire Day 1

Iraqi militia threats expand the potential geographic footprint of the conflict and put US forces in Iraq at heightened risk.

Led to

Hundreds storm US embassy in Baghdad

Earlier Iraqi militia threats against US assets escalated to a physical attempt to storm the US embassy in Baghdad

Occurred 1 Mar 2026

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Kataib Hezbollah declares for war

Kataib Hezbollah's declaration of intent to enter the conflict represents a direct escalation from the earlier posture of threats without action

Occurred 1 Mar 2026

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Different Perspectives

Hizballah

Has not commented on the US Treasury's 20 August designation of ten people, including named couriers, over a cash network Treasury says moved money to it from the IRGC-Qods Force. ACLED recorded a sharp rise in attacks around it the same day.

Kuwait

Kuwait's Chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Khaled al-Shriaan, co-chaired the 16th US-Kuwait Joint Military Commission at the Pentagon on 21 August. Kuwait has not published what was agreed; only a summary of the meeting's existence and attendees is sourced.

Qatar

Has not commented publicly on the $4.5bn KC-46A tanker Foreign Military Sale notification the State Department approved on 20 August. The notification opens a sale process; Doha has not confirmed whether it will proceed to a signed transfer.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Told a Baghdad business meeting on 20 August that Iran will not endure a hungry population regardless of its military strength, against 87.9% point-to-point inflation and 128.1% food inflation for Tir. His fellow Majlis Economic Committee member Samsami separately warned a petrol price rise would ignite unrest.

US Navy

Signed a $22.9bn, seven-year contract with Raytheon on 17 August to raise Tomahawk output from about 60 a year to more than 1,000. The Acting Navy Secretary, quoted via an X post, framed it as the "Arsenal of Freedom" initiative; it replaces the 850 missiles fired by 1 April in about ten months at the new rate.

UK Maritime Trade Operations

UKMTO logged six armed men boarding a tanker 136 nautical miles east of Al Mukalla on 20 August and redirecting it toward Somalia. A vessel steered toward the Somali coast reads as an attempted seizure, a distinct hazard from the stand-off strikes the same lane has seen before.