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Iran Conflict 2026
29OCT

France holds cheaper leg, heat unwinds

2 min read
17:49UTC

The France-Germany day-ahead spread compressed about 70% from its 30 June heatwave peak of €71.50 to around €18-26 by 5 July, as German prices nearly halved and France held the cheaper leg.

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Key takeaway

France held the cheaper day-ahead leg as the heat premium unwound, with Flamanville-3's September overhaul the forward risk.

The France-Germany day-ahead power spread compressed roughly 70% from its 30 June heatwave peak of €71.50/MWh to around €18-26/MWh by 4-5 July, as the heat broke and both legs fell⁠1. German day-ahead means dropped to roughly €62-64/MWh from €195 on 30 June, nearly halving.

France held the cheaper leg throughout the window, consistent with the 22 June reset where EDF nuclear kept French clearing below Germany. France last traded as the dearer leg on 15 June, a brief inversion that has not returned.

Germany's thermal stack drove the premium: gas-and-carbon CCGT set a high day-ahead floor through peak cooling demand, and that floor unwound as temperatures fell, compressing the clean spark spread with it.

The forward risk sits in September, when Flamanville-3 enters a year-long overhaul and removes roughly 1.6 GW from EDF's fleet at the onset of the heating season. Whether France holds the cheaper leg through it, or German thermal reclaims the discount, is the trade this desk watches.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Electricity got much cheaper in Germany over the past week, falling from €195 per megawatt-hour on 30 June to around €62-64 by early July, as a heatwave-driven price spike unwound. France's prices stayed lower than Germany's throughout, as they usually do, because France's large nuclear fleet keeps its electricity cheap. The gap between the two countries' prices, which had widened to €71.50 during the heatwave, shrank back to about €18-26. This is largely weather returning to normal: less need for gas-fired power plants in Germany once wind picked back up, and France's nuclear stations kept running through the heat despite some output cuts.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Germany's day-ahead price is set by its gas-and-carbon thermal stack whenever wind output is low, so the clean spark spread, the margin a CCGT operator earns after paying for gas and carbon, widened to roughly €74/MWh at the 30 June peak and has now compressed as wind returned and gas-fired units stopped setting the marginal price.

France's cheaper leg depends on nuclear baseload staying online regardless of river temperature. EDF's 12% output cut on 30 June removed volume from Bugey, Golfech and Nogent without touching the low-cost baseload that actually sets the French clearing price, which is why the curtailment dented supply but did not flip France to the dearer leg.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Flamanville-3's scheduled overhaul from September removes 1,650 MW of French nuclear baseload through most of the 2026-27 winter, narrowing France's margin if another heatwave-driven curtailment event coincides with low wind.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    The spread compression back to EUR 18-26 is a return to the pre-heatwave baseline rather than evidence of a new structural low, since it depends on EDF's nuclear fleet running without further curtailment.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Precedent

    The 15 June polarity flip shows France's cheaper-leg status can reverse within days once French forward contracts reprice on curtailment risk, a pattern Flamanville-3's outage could make more likely to recur.

    Short term · Reported
Sources:energy-charts.info
Mentions:France →Germany →EDF →Flamanville-3 →energy-charts.info →Golfech →CCGT →France-Germany day-ahead power spread →
First Reported In

Update #24 · Hormuz tanker rebound is no LNG relief

energy-charts.info· 6 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
France stays the cheaper power leg
The EUR 18-26 spread by 4-5 July is the direct unwind of the EUR 71.50 heatwave peak set on 30 June.
Occurred 30 Jun 2026
Read story →
France clears below Germany by €17
France held the cheaper leg established in the 22 June EDF-driven reset through the current unwind.
Occurred 22 Jun 2026
Read story →
FR-DE power spread inverts, France on top
The brief 15 June flip to France-as-dearer-leg has not recurred; France stayed the cheaper leg through the unwind.
Occurred 15 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
France holds cheaper leg, heat unwinds
France kept the cheaper day-ahead leg through the unwind, and the forward risk sits in September when Flamanville-3's year-long overhaul pulls roughly 1.6 GW of nuclear from the fleet.
Led to
French heat flips the FR-DE spread
The 12 July flip reverses the EUR 18-26/MWh France-cheaper spread recorded on 5 July.
Occurred 12 Jul 2026
Read story →
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Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.