14AUG

Croatia, Poland, Portugal 15 months late on EU rule

3 min read

09:56UTC

The European Commission issued reasoned opinions on 29 April against Croatia, Poland and Portugal for failing to transpose Directive 2024/1711, fifteen months past the 17 January 2025 deadline and one procedural step from Court of Justice referral.

← Back to The ships Iran does not control are leaving Hormuz Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictAssessed

Key takeaway

The consumer-price directive is fifteen months overdue in three states facing next winter.

The European Commission issued reasoned opinions on Wednesday 29 April against Croatia, Poland and Portugal for failing to transpose Directive 2024/1711, the EU electricity-market design reform written under the prior Commission to stabilise consumer electricity prices and reduce dependency on fossil fuel pricing⁠¹. The transposition deadline was 17 January 2025, fifteen months before the reasoned opinions landed.

Reasoned opinions are the second formal step in EU infringement proceedings, after formal notice. the Commission had sent formal notice letters in March 2025 to 26 of 27 member states for the same failure. Three of those have now reached the reasoned-opinion stage, leaving them one procedural step from referral to the Court of Justice of the European Union. Each respondent has a two-month response window before the Commission can refer; that places potential referral on a late-June or early-July clock.

Directive 2024/1711 amends two earlier instruments, Directive 2018/2001 on renewable energy and Directive 2019/944 on the electricity market. Its central tools are dynamic-pricing protections, peak-shaving mechanisms and capacity-market rationalisation. Chatham House's energy programme has previously flagged that the directive's most contested provision is the capacity mechanism reform, which national TSOs in central Europe have lobbied against. The directive's core instruments require domestic primary legislation in most jurisdictions rather than regulator-level rulemaking, which is why transposition has slipped past the deadline in over half the bloc.

Consumers in Croatia, Poland and Portugal still see electricity bills set under pre-2024/1711 frameworks. The dynamic-pricing protections and peak-shaving consumer mechanisms the directive would unlock are not available to households or SMEs in those jurisdictions for the 2026-27 winter. The directive's 17 January 2025 deadline came nine months before the storage withdrawal that left the bloc at 28% on 1 April 2026. The Commission's AccelerateEU package on 22 April omitted any gas storage injection mechanism; the same week's infringement proceedings reveal three states have not transposed the consumer-price directive built for exactly this price environment. The five-finance-minister windfall letter to Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra sits in the same regulatory moment.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

In 2024, the EU passed a law designed to protect consumers when energy prices spike; through mechanisms like price stabilisation and adjusted electricity market rules. Every EU country had until 17 January 2025 to write that law into their own national legislation. Croatia, Poland and Portugal missed the deadline by fifteen months. Brussels has now formally told those three countries: comply within two months or we take you to the EU's top court, which can impose daily financial penalties. In the meantime, the consumer protections that directive would unlock are not available to households or businesses in those three countries during this winter's energy crunch.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Directive 2024/1711's central instruments; peak-shaving obligations, two-way CfDs for generators, capacity mechanism rationalisation; require domestic primary legislation in Croatia, Poland and Portugal.

Their national energy regulators cannot simply adopt the directive's provisions by regulatory decision; parliaments must pass amending energy acts. In all three states, energy market legislation competes for parliamentary time with fiscal and housing legislation in election cycles that ran across 2024-25.

The March 2025 formal notice cohort of 26 member states reveals that slow transposition is near-universal, not a failure specific to these three states. The move to reasoned-opinion stage for Croatia, Poland and Portugal reflects that they responded inadequately or not at all to the March 2025 formal notice, while other states submitted partial transposition or timeline commitments that held the Commission back.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Two-month response window places potential Court of Justice referral on a late-June or early-July clock, overlapping the start of the summer injection season and adding political cost to any Commission decision to escalate.
Short term · 0.8
Risk
The 2026-27 winter arrives with no domestic CfD or peak-shaving mechanism in Croatia, Poland and Portugal; households in those markets carry full exposure to gas-price volatility in electricity settlement.
Medium term · 0.82
Precedent
The March 2025 formal notice cohort of 26 member states means the Commission can escalate further reasoned opinions rapidly; this package is the first of potentially several infringement waves on Directive 2024/1711.
Medium term · 0.75

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from Belgium

Belgium

Primary parallel: After Directive 2009/72/EC (the Third Energy Package's electricity market directive) entered force, Greece and Germany both missed transposition deadlines and received reasoned opinions.

Greece received a Court of Justice referral in 2012 and faced daily penalty fines under Article 260 TFEU for approximately fourteen months before full transposition. The parallel is structural: both directives require domestic primary legislation to establish market mechanisms, not regulatory rulemaking.

Counter-parallel: Ireland transposed the 2009 directive fourteen months late but avoided Article 260 fines by submitting a credible parliamentary timeline in its response to the reasoned opinion. Poland's established practice of submitting timeline commitments in EU infringement responses may produce a similar outcome here, delaying Court referral without delivering actual consumer protections.

Domestic electricity bills in Croatia, Poland and Portugal are set under pre-2024/1711 frameworks. The directive's peak-shaving consumer mechanism, which limits exposure to gas-price volatility in electricity settlement, is not available to households or SMEs in those jurisdictions for the 2026-27 winter.

For industrial offtakers in Poland; the EU's second-largest industrial gas consumer; the absence of a functioning domestic CfD mechanism means long-term power purchase agreements cannot be structured under the EU framework, increasing the cost of capital for industrial renewable PPA transactions in Polish energy-intensive sectors.

Consensus view: Chatham House's energy programme has previously flagged that Directive 2024/1711's most contested provision is capacity mechanism reform, which national transmission system operators (TSOs) in central Europe lobbied against during the legislative process.

Croatia's energy regulator (HERA) and Poland's URE have both delayed primary-legislation drafting, each citing conflicts with their existing capacity market designs. The 17 January 2025 deadline arriving before the 2026 injection season makes the transposition gap a live supply-security liability, not a theoretical one.

Counter-view: IEEFA has argued that the directive's two-way contracts for difference (CfDs) and peak-shaving mechanisms require domestic primary legislation in most jurisdictions; not regulator-level rulemaking; making the fifteen-month slip structurally predictable rather than negligent. Portugal's case is complicated by its simultaneous referral risk on Directive 2023/2413 renewables transposition, suggesting a legislative backlog rather than political resistance.

Key tension: Whether the two-month response window before potential Court of Justice referral accelerates domestic legislative drafting or produces compliance letters that stall proceedings without actual transposition.

Sources:European Commission DG Energy·European Commission DG Energy

Mentions:European Commission →Croatia →Poland →Portugal →Wopke Hoekstra →Chatham House →AccelerateEU →IEEFA →Germany →European Union →Greece →Directive 2024/1711 →Directive 2018/2001 →

First Reported In

Update #6 · REMIT II live; storage instrument absent

European Commission DG Energy· 29 Apr 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

AccelerateEU skips gas storage injection mechanism entirely

AccelerateEU package omitted gas storage mechanism on 22 April; the 29 April infringement proceedings on Directive 2024/1711 compound the regulatory-architecture gap by confirming member states have not transposed the consumer-price protection instrument.

Occurred 22 Apr 2026

Read story →

This Event

Croatia, Poland, Portugal 15 months late on EU rule

The legal instrument written specifically to cushion European consumers against the next price shock has no domestic enforcement footprint in three jurisdictions for the upcoming 2026-27 winter.

Led to

Two capitals filed on the gas directive

The Commission's 29 April infringements package issued reasoned opinions against Croatia, Poland and Portugal for missing the transposition deadline on a different directive, EU 2024/1711, placing them one procedural step from a Court of Justice referral; it is the precedent for what follows if states miss the 5 August 2024/1788 deadline, not part of this same beat.

Occurred 2 Aug 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Russia

Russia vetoed the same renewal on 17 September, arguing that Britain, France and Germany never validly triggered the snapback that reimposed the pre-2015 UN resolutions. No panel was ever seated under that mandate, so the UN list decays fastest for states that screen against it rather than against the American one.

China

China vetoed renewal of the UN sanctions monitoring mandate on 17 September, arguing that Resolution 2231 terminated on 18 October 2025 and that the Security Council should drop Iran's nuclear file altogether. On that reading there is nothing to monitor, so the sanctions survive and their enforcement does not.

Iraq

Baghdad saw the last American counter-Islamic State troops leave its territory on 30 September, completing a timetable it agreed with Washington in September 2024. Iraqi airspace deconfliction passes to Baghdad, which still has an open inquiry into the Maysan drone launches that has named nobody.

Pakistan

Treasury names Waseem Pasha Tajammal of Rawalpindi as the Cavalier group's chairman and places one of the designated incorporations in Islamabad. QatarEnergy separately told Pakistan that liquefied natural gas cargo cancellations would run through November, so Islamabad carries an enforcement question and a supply gap at once.

Turkey

Treasury named a Cavalier Dynamics company incorporated in Istanbul among the ten nodes it designated on 29 September, and Ankara has published no response. Turkey imported a record 120,000 barrels a day of Indian diesel in August, cutting Russia's share of its diesel imports to 20 per cent.

India

Suraj Yadav, a wiper from Uttar Pradesh, was killed aboard the Cape Dao on 23 September, and 19 of the ship's 20 Indian crew were taken off alive. India's September imports ran at 575,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 566,000 from Saudi Arabia, back to pre-conflict rates.