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Iran Conflict 2026
12AUG

Oil jumps as Hormuz calm breaks

2 min read
14:52UTC

Brent crude rose toward $73 and West Texas Intermediate above $69 within hours of the strike, erasing five sessions of calm in which tankers had cleared Hormuz at pre-war rates.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent and WTI jumped within hours, unwinding a five-session calm over the Hormuz strait.

Brent Crude rose toward $73 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $69 within hours of the Hormuz strike 1, unwinding a calm that had settled over five trading sessions. Brent is the benchmark that prices roughly two-thirds of the world's traded crude; WTI is its US counterpart. Both had drifted lower as the corridor reopened and traders wrote down the war premium.

That calm had gone further than a lull. Thirty-five tankers cleared the strait at pre-war rates on 2 July, the first such count of the conflict , and Saudi Arabia had pushed 34 million barrels through Hormuz since the June truce 2. The recovery rested on shipowners absorbing risk their insurers still refused to price down, which is why a single hit could take it back in an afternoon.

The transmission runs straight to the pump. Al Rekayyat was carrying gas, not crude, so the strike put liquefied natural gas alongside oil in the price risk for the first time in the corridor dispute, and both feed household petrol and heating bills.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices went up right after the missile strike on the tanker. Brent crude, the main global oil price benchmark, moved toward $73 a barrel, and the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, went above $69. Prices had been calm for almost a week because ships were moving through the strait again at close to normal rates. One attack was enough to undo that calm quickly, because oil traders had priced in safety that turned out not to be guaranteed.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Thin northern-hemisphere summer trading volume amplifies any single headline; a strike landing on a five-session calm moves price further than the same news would during a liquid winter session.

Options positioning built up during the calm, when traders had sold volatility on the assumption the truce would hold; the strike forced rapid buy-backs of that short-volatility exposure, adding a mechanical push on top of the news itself.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A sustained price rise above $75 would test whether OPEC+ spare capacity, not just Gulf transit volume, becomes the market's next reference point.

First Reported In

Update #148 · Iran shoots the Hormuz route it rejected

The National· 7 Jul 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Gargash warned the region cannot stay trapped between "neither war nor peace", naming the stalemate itself as unsustainable for a Gulf state hosting US forces and absorbing the shipping-risk cost without being party to either the strike decisions or the corridor talks.
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Shipping and insurance underwriters
War-risk premiums are still set against an active blockade and a fatal Bab el-Mandeb attack with an unresolved vessel identity. A disabling strike and a diplomatic "advanced" claim pulling in opposite directions gives underwriters no single signal to reprice cover against.
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan's defence minister said matters are "shaping up in favor of peace" on Hormuz and a Qatari spokesperson called the Iran-Oman reopening talks advanced. Both are publicly ahead of Tehran's own security council, which has just disowned the deal's significance.
United States Central Command / President Trump
United States Central Command / President Trump
CENTCOM confirmed a helicopter strike disabled a container ship that tried to evade the blockade, and Trump said the US "totally controls" the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is treating evasion of the blockade as grounds for disabling fire rather than the redirection tactic CENTCOM used through July.
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Rezaei told China's ambassador Hormuz reopens only when the US ends the war and unblocks Iran's funds, and that the Oman transit deal "will have no impact" on that decision. He is drawing a hard line between the technical corridor track and the political settlement his council controls.
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
SABA reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen as tanker use of Bab el-Mandeb fell. The fighting adds civilian and supply risks to a route ships use when Hormuz is unsafe.