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Iran Conflict 2026
23JUL

Oil jumps as Hormuz calm breaks

2 min read
19:27UTC

Brent crude rose toward $73 and West Texas Intermediate above $69 within hours of the strike, erasing five sessions of calm in which tankers had cleared Hormuz at pre-war rates.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Brent and WTI jumped within hours, unwinding a five-session calm over the Hormuz strait.

Brent Crude rose toward $73 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $69 within hours of the Hormuz strike⁠1, unwinding a calm that had settled over five trading sessions. Brent is the benchmark that prices roughly two-thirds of the world's traded crude; WTI is its US counterpart. Both had drifted lower as the corridor reopened and traders wrote down the war premium.

That calm had gone further than a lull. Thirty-five tankers cleared the strait at pre-war rates on 2 July, the first such count of the conflict, and Saudi Arabia had pushed 34 million barrels through Hormuz since the June truce⁠2. The recovery rested on shipowners absorbing risk their insurers still refused to price down, which is why a single hit could take it back in an afternoon.

The transmission runs straight to the pump. Al Rekayyat was carrying gas, not crude, so the strike put liquefied natural gas alongside oil in the price risk for the first time in the corridor dispute, and both feed household petrol and heating bills.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices went up right after the missile strike on the tanker. Brent Crude, the main global oil price benchmark, moved toward $73 a barrel, and the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, went above $69. Prices had been calm for almost a week because ships were moving through the strait again at close to normal rates. One attack was enough to undo that calm quickly, because oil traders had priced in safety that turned out not to be guaranteed.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Thin northern-hemisphere summer trading volume amplifies any single headline; a strike landing on a five-session calm moves price further than the same news would during a liquid winter session.

Options positioning built up during the calm, when traders had sold volatility on the assumption the truce would hold; the strike forced rapid buy-backs of that short-volatility exposure, adding a mechanical push on top of the news itself.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    A sustained price rise above $75 would test whether OPEC+ spare capacity, not just Gulf transit volume, becomes the market's next reference point.

First Reported In

Update #148 · Iran shoots the Hormuz route it rejected

The National· 7 Jul 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Wang Yi
Wang Yi
China's foreign minister and Djibouti's issued a joint communique on 21 October saying the war should not reach the Horn of Africa and stressing free navigation through Bab al-Mandeb. The text names neither Iran nor the Houthis, and Djibouti hosts China's only overseas military base, opposite the Yemeni coast.
Ministry of External Affairs
Ministry of External Affairs
India's foreign ministry called the attacks on Saudi civilian and energy sites "unacceptable" on 22 October and said they must stop at once. An Indian died at Dammam, Indians were injured there and at Shaybah, and about 4,000 Umrah pilgrims remain stranded by one MP's count.
Iraq
Iraq
Iraq closed the al-Sheeb crossing with Iran to travellers and trucks from 21 October and said other crossings would close gradually. Unlike September's closure, which ended on a staged timetable, this one has none, and Iran's interior ministry said it received no notice.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Egypt's president said on 21 October that Cairo's support would "defend Saudi territory, and does not include an attack on Yemen". Araghchi warned that Egyptian involvement would further complicate the situation, and Cairo's limit matches the one Ankara set on 8 October against attacking another state's soil.
UK Ministry of Defence
UK Ministry of Defence
The MoD said on 20 October that RAF Typhoons over Saudi Arabia will not strike the Houthis, but extended tanker support to Saudi operations including against Houthi targets in Yemen. The tanker line sets no limit on strikes, so British aircraft may now refuel Saudi jets on bombing runs.
Turkey
Turkey
Ankara sent the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement to parliament around 20 October, and its published text treats an attack on one party as an attack on all. Article 16 brings it into force only on the last ratification, so the 5 October invocation in Riyadh could not yet bind Turkey.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.