14JUN

Bank of Russia poll sees 7.1% inflation

2 min read

11:42UTC

Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia now expect 7.1% inflation this year and a wider budget deficit, even with a higher oil price.

← Back to US drops red line; signature still slips Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictAssessed

Key takeaway

Russian forecasters expect a wider deficit even with oil at $70.

Analysts polled by the Central Bank of Russia raised their forecast for this year's inflation to 7.1%, from 6.6%, in a survey the bank published on 14 October⁠¹. They now expect the key rate, the bank's benchmark interest rate, to average 12.8% next year, up from 12.4%. They see the consolidated budget deficit at 3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, from 3.5%, and 3.0% next year, from 2.6%.

The same analysts raised this year's oil price assumption to $70 a barrel, from $64, yet still widened their deficit forecasts⁠². If oil earns more and the deficit grows anyway, the analysts expect spending to outrun revenue. Russia's Finance Ministry is gloomier on oil: it has already cut its own oil and gas revenue forecast for the year. The analysts' deficit figure includes regional budgets, so it does not compare directly with the ministry's federal plan.

The bank held its rate in September and named fuel prices as an inflation driver. It meets again on 23 October, and the analysts' forecast implies the rate staying at 14% for the rest of the year, The Moscow Times reported⁠³.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Russia's central bank asks private economists for their forecasts every few months. The latest survey shows them expecting prices to rise faster this year than they thought before. They also expect the government to spend more than it earns, even though they think oil, Russia's main export, will sell for more. The central bank sets its interest rate on 23 October. High inflation makes it harder to cut rates, which keeps loans expensive for Russian businesses and families.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Inflation forecasts above 7% make a Bank of Russia rate cut on 23 October less likely.

Sources:Central Bank of Russia·The Moscow Times

Mentions:Central Bank of Russia →Russia →Moscow Times →Moscow →Russian Finance Ministry →Bank of Russia key rate →

First Reported In

Update #29 · Trump waives his own 500% Russia tariffs

Central Bank of Russia· 17 Oct 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Bank of Russia holds rate and names fuel

Analysts raised their rate path after the bank's September hold at 14%.

Occurred 11 Sept 2026

Read story →

Russia plans record 17.1tn for defence

Wider deficit forecasts follow the Finance Ministry's cut to its oil and gas revenue forecast.

Occurred 30 Sept 2026

Read story →

This Event

Bank of Russia poll sees 7.1% inflation

Russia's forecasters expect dearer money for longer and a deficit that grows even when oil earns more.

Different Perspectives

United States (Joint Maritime Information Center)

The JMIC, the US-led naval reporting cell, rated the Hormuz threat "severe" in its 25 October advisory, as reported by gCaptain, and warned of possible renewed mining. Eight days earlier it found no substantiation for the Guards' mine claims, while US-facilitated transits ran at about 34 a day.

United Kingdom (CPS and Counter Terrorism Policing)

The CPS charged two men under the National Security Act 2023 over the RAF Fairford incident, and Counter Terrorism Policing said it believes the foreign intelligence service involved is Iran's, LBC reported. The case now runs through the courts; both men are charged, not convicted.

Aden and Yemen's recognised government

The Houthis told people to leave Aden airport, in the government-held south, before a missile fell there on 28 October, AFP reported, and police reported a second attack that afternoon. The fight between Riyadh and the Houthis is landing on the south's main civilian airport.

Qatar (mediators)

Qatar-led mediators put new terms to Iran this week, which an Iranian official called "ideas, not a proposal". Riyadh framed the Tehran meeting as support for Qatari and Pakistani mediation, keeping Doha at the centre of the indirect channel.

Korea Shipowners' Association

The association said the ships Iran listed were sub-chartered to an overseas oil company, not owned by Sinokor, carried no South Korean crew, and that Sinokor was unaware of the warning. South Korea's shipowners are contesting whose vessels the notice covers before it takes effect.

Kuwait (foreign ministry)

Kuwait summoned Iran's ambassador, Mohammad Toutounji, and handed him a protest note over the embassy's denial that its citizen took part in the alleged plot against Interior Minister Fahad Al-Yousef. Kuwait is answering through its courts and a diplomatic protest, citing international law and the UN Charter.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.