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Iran Conflict 2026
21MAY

Majlis codifies Hormuz toll in law

2 min read
09:55UTC

The blockade that began as a military measure is becoming domestic legislation, with projected revenues reaching $800 million per month.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Iran is converting a wartime blockade into permanent law, making reversal a sovereignty question.

Iran's Majlis began drafting legislation on 31 March to codify the IRGC's Hormuz toll into permanent domestic law. 1 A vote was expected before the end of March but cannot proceed until parliament reconvenes. At projected scale, revenue estimates reach $600 million to $800 million per month from oil tankers and LNG carriers combined.

The legislative step matters because it changes the nature of what the toll is. An operational wartime measure can be reversed by the military that imposed it. A law can only be reversed by the parliament that passed it, with Guardian Council approval, after a political process that no Iranian politician has incentive to initiate. Shadow fleet vessels already account for 80% of Hormuz transits , and the toll is being paid by state-backed Chinese container ships. The infrastructure is built. Legislation is the lock.

The last time a state imposed transit fees on a major international waterway was the Ottoman Empire's Bosphorus tolls, abolished by the 1936 Montreux Convention. Iran's version is being codified in real time during an active war. The NPT withdrawal bill remains frozen in the same parliament : the Majlis has not sat in 31 days, with no reconvening date announced. When it does sit, both bills advance simultaneously.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran's parliament is writing a law to permanently charge ships a toll to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The law has not passed yet because parliament has not met in over a month. The difference between a wartime toll and a permanent law is significant. A wartime toll can end when the war ends. A law can only be changed by parliament, which means it could last for decades regardless of how the war ends. The last time a country charged transit fees on a major international waterway was the Ottoman Empire, which charged Bosphorus tolls until a 1936 international agreement abolished them. Iran is trying to do the same thing in 2026.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    If enacted, this would be the first domestic law codifying a sovereign charge on an international strait in modern maritime history, challenging UNCLOS innocent passage rights.

    Long term · 0.85
  • Consequence

    Reversing the toll post-war becomes a sovereignty dispute requiring treaty revision rather than a military question, making it functionally permanent.

    Medium term · 0.8
  • Risk

    When parliament reconvenes, both the toll bill and the NPT withdrawal bill advance simultaneously, presenting the international community with two irreversible legislative facts at once.

    Short term · 0.7
First Reported In

Update #53 · Trump drops Hormuz goal; toll becomes law

NBC News / Lloyd's List· 31 Mar 2026
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Different Perspectives
Turkey (Shakarab consideration)
Turkey (Shakarab consideration)
Ankara serves as one of two Western-adjacent Iran back-channels while Turkish national Gholamreza Khani Shakarab faces imminent execution on espionage charges in Iran. President Erdogan cannot deflect the domestic political crisis that a Turkish execution would trigger, which would force suspension of the mediating role.
Germany (Bundestag gap)
Germany (Bundestag gap)
Belgium, Germany, Australia, and France committed Hormuz coalition hardware on 18 May. Germany's Bundestag authorisation for the coalition deployment remains pending, creating a constitutional gap between the commitment announced and the parliamentary mandate required to operationalise it.
IEA and oil market analysts
IEA and oil market analysts
The IEA's $106 May Brent projection met the market in one session on 20 May as Brent fell 5.16% on diplomatic optimism. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's two-layer premium framework holds: the kinetic component compressed; the structural insurance component tied to Lloyd's ROE remains unresolved.
Hengaw
Hengaw
Documented the dual Kurdish execution at Naqadeh on 21 May, the two Iraqi-national espionage executions on 20 May, and Gholamreza Khani Shakarab's imminent execution risk. The 24-hour cluster covers two executions at one facility, the first foreign-national espionage executions, and a Turkish national whose death would suspend Ankara's mediation.
Lloyd's of London
Lloyd's of London
Hull rates stand at 110-125% of vessel value on the secondary market; the Joint War Committee has conditioned cover reopening on written ROE from the coalition or PGSA. The Majlis rial bill makes any compliant ROE structurally impossible to draft while the PGSA's yuan portal remains its operational mechanism.
United Kingdom and France (Northwood coalition)
United Kingdom and France (Northwood coalition)
The 26-nation coalition paper requires Lloyd's to see written rules of engagement before Hormuz war-risk cover reopens. The Majlis rial bill adds a second governance incompatibility on top of the unpublished PGSA fee schedule; coalition ROE cannot mention rial without conceding Iranian sovereignty over the strait.