Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, spiked almost 7% intraday to $97.47 on Monday 1 June once Iran suspended talks, its highest since the $98.83 Bandar Abbas bounce on 26 May, yet it settled lower at $94.98, up 4.2% on the day, as the Lebanon ceasefire pared the gain1. The jump came on a formal Iranian diplomatic act, not a missile, so the risk premium now tracks the negotiating table rather than the battlefield. A 7% move translates to roughly 12 to 15p a litre for UK drivers within a fortnight.
The Iranian rial hit a record 1,746,000 to the dollar on Iran's open market by 2 June, from 1,705,000 on 31 May, a 2.4% depreciation in two days that accelerated after the suspension2. Imported food, medicine and fuel cost more in rial overnight, and for Iranians on fixed wages savings erode in days. The same Iranian act split the two markets: Brent rallied while the rial fell, because traders read deal-breakdown risk where ordinary Iranians read a worsening economy.
Lloyd's of London kept its Hormuz war-risk designation unchanged, holding the two-market split that has run since the conflict began. Lloyd's Joint War Committee can de-list the strait of Hormuz only on a UN Security Council resolution or a government certification letter, a structural trigger no sentiment can shift; futures, by contrast, price the odds of a press release. So crude can rally on a thaw while marine insurance stays frozen, because the two answer to different triggers.
