31JUL

Oil Retreats From Peak Amid Ceasefire Speculation

1 min read

09:33UTC

Brent crude eased to $110.47 from its $116 peak, but remains 64% above pre-war levels with the strait operating at a fraction of normal capacity.

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EconomicAssessed

Key takeaway

Markets priced in ceasefire hope; the supply disruption remains.

Brent Crude traded at $110.47 per barrel, retreating from the $116 peak on 28 March. The pullback may reflect ceasefire hopes from the Islamabad talks, though the fundamental supply picture has not changed. the strait of Hormuz remains over 90% below pre-war transit volumes at 53 weekly transits against a baseline of 966.

The price remains roughly 64% above pre-war levels of $67.41 per barrel. Analysts had warned that $150 per barrel was possible if the strait stays closed another month. The Islamabad Accord's immediate-reopening provision is the first diplomatic instrument that directly addresses the oil price mechanism, which may explain why markets have responded to the framework's existence even before Iran has accepted it.

The modest retreat should not be mistaken for normalisation. The IEA, IMF, and World Bank jointly described this as one of the largest supply shortages in energy market history . That assessment has not changed.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices dropped slightly from their highest point of the war, possibly because traders think the new Pakistan peace plan might work. But prices are still about 64% higher than before the war started. The strait that most of the world's oil passes through is still barely open. If the peace plan fails, prices could rise sharply again.

What could happen next?

Markets pricing in ceasefire probability; failure would trigger sharp reversal

Sources:CNBC

Mentions:Brent Crude →Strait of Hormuz →Iran →Islamabad →Pakistan →International Monetary Fund →World Bank →

First Reported In

Update #60 · Pakistan's Ceasefire Plan Fills the Vacuum

CNBC· 6 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Global Energy Bodies Declare Historic Supply Shortage

IEA/IMF/World Bank calling this the largest supply shortage in energy market history (ID:1986) contextualises the oil price retreat as modest relative to the underlying disruption.

Occurred 4 Apr 2026

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This Event

Oil Retreats From Peak Amid Ceasefire Speculation

The price retreat, while modest, is the first sustained pullback since the war began. It suggests markets are pricing in a non-zero probability of ceasefire from the Islamabad talks. However, with Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-war transit volumes, the fundamental supply disruption remains unchanged.

Different Perspectives

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OFAC's amended FAQ 1224 gives a compliance desk its first published standard: full severance from Lukoil and a US-jurisdiction blocked account for sale proceeds. The conditions name neither ISAB nor Italy, so a Priolo Gargallo-linked bid answers a different question than a Neftochim Burgas or Petrotel Ploiesti one.

Managed-money funds on Brent Last Day

CFTC data for the week to 21 July showed managed money flipping 74,400 contracts to a net long of 15,665 against 1,410 short on the Brent Last Day contract, code 06765T. A fund that held that short through July has now covered it, and the spent short base raises the bar for the next leg higher.

Saudi crude exporters

Saudi-linked tanker transits through Bab el-Mandeb fell to about 7.5 a day after the 24 July underwriting withdrawal, pushing more barrels onto the longer route round the Cape or through the Yanbu terminal. Every diverted barrel ties up a ship for longer, and a fleet that turns slower charges more.

Tanker owners on the Bab el-Mandeb route

Lloyd's-market syndicates withdrew war-risk cover from Saudi-linked hulls on 24 July, leaving owners of that class of vessel to sail Bab el-Mandeb uninsured or not at all. Tanker transits on the route fell to roughly 7.5 a day, and cover, once withdrawn, does not return on a shipowner's timetable.

Eni

Eni's board approved second-quarter results on 29 July, swinging refining EBIT to a EUR0.08bn profit from a year-earlier loss even as group profit doubled, and named Red Sea freight cost as a cap on that improvement. A refiner absorbing higher shipping costs on Saudi-linked crude while its numbers improve treats the freight line as a drag, not a crisis.

Asian buyers (India, Japan, China, South Korea)

Asian refiners are absorbing 62% of Yanbu's 3.75m b/d flow, the bulk of Saudi Arabia's rerouted crude now clearing east rather than into the Atlantic basin. That destination split leaves Asian buyers more exposed to any single Yanbu-specific disruption than under the kingdom's normal multi-terminal export pattern.