27JUL

Thirteen airlines book out to October

2 min read

09:24UTC

Thirteen foreign airlines have pushed their Gulf suspensions out to October after EASA advised European carriers to avoid four countries' airspace. Etihad is still flying from Abu Dhabi.

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Key takeaway

Carriers have booked their absence from the Gulf through October, a forecast rather than a reaction.

Thirteen foreign airlines have extended suspensions of flights to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar through October, following a bulletin from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on 14 July advising European carriers to avoid all four countries' airspace ¹.

Carriers plan crews, slots and aircraft rotations months ahead of departure. A suspension carried as far forward as October is a commercial judgement that this war does not finish in the summer, taken by planners who lose money whichever way they are wrong. Cancel too far out and the aircraft sits idle while rivals sell the route; cancel too late and the airline is paying for crews stranded on a field that shuts without notice.

Kuwait's airport suspended flights outright last week as Gulf carriers cut their services . That was a reaction to the day's events. Booking October is something else.

Etihad Airways has not grounded operations. As of Monday 20 July it was still flying most of its network out of Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, having cancelled only its Kuwait and Bahrain services in mid-July ². A Gulf carrier operating from a Gulf hub reads the same airspace differently from a European one working to an EASA bulletin, and the split is visible in the timetables.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency, a regulator that advises airlines on where it is unsafe to fly, told European carriers on 14 July to avoid the airspace over the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Airlines from outside Europe often follow EASA's lead because it affects their insurance and legal position even when they are not legally bound by it. Thirteen foreign airlines have now extended their suspensions of flights to those four countries all the way through October, rather than reviewing the situation week by week. Etihad Airways, based in Abu Dhabi, is the exception: it is still flying most of its network, having only cancelled flights to Kuwait and Bahrain specifically.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

EASA bulletins are advisory, not binding on non-EU carriers, but they function as a liability shield: an airline that ignores a published EASA warning and then suffers a loss over Gulf airspace faces a harder insurance and litigation position than one that followed it. That is why 13 carriers extended suspensions well beyond the EU's own jurisdiction.

Etihad's narrower response, cutting only Kuwait and Bahrain while keeping most of its network flying from Zayed International, is the one confirmed exception to that pattern. The research available does not establish why Etihad's risk calculus differs from the other 13 carriers; that gap is worth watching rather than filling in.

What could happen next?

Consequence
An October horizon gives Gulf airports and tourism-dependent carriers a fixed planning window rather than an indefinite one, but it also locks in roughly ten weeks of lost transit and inbound traffic regardless of how the conflict develops before then.

Source Landscape

This story draws on right-leaning sources from Türkiye

Türkiye

LeftRight

Immediate impact: 13 foreign carriers now hold suspensions through October rather than reviewing week by week, which converts a war-risk cost into a budgeted one. Airlines can hedge fuel and reroute crews against a known October date; insurers can price a fixed-term war-risk exclusion instead of an open-ended one.

Structural: the split matters more than the total. Etihad has cancelled only its Kuwait and Bahrain routes and kept flying most of its network from Zayed International, which shows the underlying risk pricing is being done airport by airport, not blanket-applied across the whole Gulf. Carriers are treating EASA's 14 July bulletin as a floor, not a template: some have gone further (full October suspensions), Etihad has gone narrower.

Sources:Anadolu Agency

Mentions:United Arab Emirates (UAE) →Bahrain →Kuwait →Qatar →Etihad Airways →Zayed International Airport →Abu Dhabi →European Union →Emirates →

First Reported In

Update #159 · A second strait closes by radio alone

Anadolu Agency· 22 Jul 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Kuwait's airport shuts as Gulf carriers retreat

Kuwait's outright flight suspension on 18 July is the reactive precedent against which the 13 airlines' forward booking to October reads as a forecast.

Occurred 17 Jul 2026

Read story →

This Event

Thirteen airlines book out to October

Airlines are now planning around this war as far ahead as October, which prices a forecast rather than a reaction.

Different Perspectives

Slovakia

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EU regulator on capacity mechanisms

Brussels is watching Germany's StromVKG first 4.5 GW capacity auction move toward its 8 September bid deadline without a resolved state-aid clearance for the 9 GW 2026 programme's gas-plant subsidies. A negative spark spread this deep on cheap gas strengthens the case for subsidised dispatchable capacity, the same case still awaiting a state-aid ruling.

French power exporters

French day-ahead cleared EUR 41.13/MWh on Sunday 26 July, EUR 43.09 below Germany, on wind more than doubling and a demand trough, not on any nuclear recovery. The desk expects the discount to hold only as long as French wind and weekend demand repeat, not as a durable nuclear-cost advantage.

European gas storage operator

A storage operator stopped bidding for prompt TTF cargoes on 21 July, reading the strike-halt unwind as the start of a fuel-side correction rather than a floor. It expects the gap between prompt and forward gas to keep narrowing as the war premium continues leaving the curve.

German gas-fired power fleet

German gas-fired plants cut output from 4.37 GW to 2.85 GW between 24 and 27 July, even as TTF fell 8 per cent, because below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh the fuel price stopped deciding dispatch. The fleet expects no relief until wind eases or StromVKG's first 4.5 GW auction adds capacity.

French industrial power consumers

France's day-ahead discount to Germany has nearly closed as TTF and EUA rise together on both sides of the border, eroding the arbitrage French industry relied on through the summer. A standing negative spark removes the German demand buffer that kept that spread wide.