Skip to content
You can now search across every topic, entity and event.What's new
European Energy Markets
27JUL

Hengaw Casualty Monitor Silent for Five Days

1 min read
09:24UTC

The war's only independent casualty monitor has gone quiet. The last confirmed figure of 6,900 killed is a floor.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

What the independent casualty monitor is not telling us is itself evidence.

Hengaw's 9th casualty report is overdue by five or more days. The organisation had been publishing on a regular cycle since the war began. Its last confirmed figure, 6,900 killed through Day 29 , is a floor, not a ceiling. Hengaw had previously gone silent for five days in late March . That the war's only independent casualty monitor cannot, or will not, publish should be read as a figure in its own right.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Hengaw is an independent human rights organisation that monitors casualties in Iran. It has been publishing regular reports since the war began, tracking deaths that the Iranian government does not publicly confirm. Its 9th report is now more than five days late. The last figure it published was 6,900 killed through Day 29. Five days of war have passed since then with no update. The silence could mean the organisation is being suppressed, that it is overwhelmed, or that the pace of casualties has exceeded its capacity to verify. Any of those explanations suggests the true toll is higher, not lower.

First Reported In

Update #55 · The Last Door Closes

CNN / Al Jazeera / Axios· 2 Apr 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Slovakia
Slovakia
Slovakia says it dropped its hold-out on the 21st sanctions package only after Ursula von der Leyen personally signed written gas-price and supply guarantees. The Council of the European Union's own 17,238-character release on the package names neither Slovakia nor any guarantee, leaving Bratislava's account unconfirmed by the institutional record.
EU regulator on capacity mechanisms
EU regulator on capacity mechanisms
Brussels is watching Germany's StromVKG first 4.5 GW capacity auction move toward its 8 September bid deadline without a resolved state-aid clearance for the 9 GW 2026 programme's gas-plant subsidies. A negative spark spread this deep on cheap gas strengthens the case for subsidised dispatchable capacity, the same case still awaiting a state-aid ruling.
French power exporters
French power exporters
French day-ahead cleared EUR 41.13/MWh on Sunday 26 July, EUR 43.09 below Germany, on wind more than doubling and a demand trough, not on any nuclear recovery. The desk expects the discount to hold only as long as French wind and weekend demand repeat, not as a durable nuclear-cost advantage.
European gas storage operator
European gas storage operator
A storage operator stopped bidding for prompt TTF cargoes on 21 July, reading the strike-halt unwind as the start of a fuel-side correction rather than a floor. It expects the gap between prompt and forward gas to keep narrowing as the war premium continues leaving the curve.
German gas-fired power fleet
German gas-fired power fleet
German gas-fired plants cut output from 4.37 GW to 2.85 GW between 24 and 27 July, even as TTF fell 8 per cent, because below roughly minus EUR 40/MWh the fuel price stopped deciding dispatch. The fleet expects no relief until wind eases or StromVKG's first 4.5 GW auction adds capacity.
French industrial power consumers
French industrial power consumers
France's day-ahead discount to Germany has nearly closed as TTF and EUA rise together on both sides of the border, eroding the arbitrage French industry relied on through the summer. A standing negative spark removes the German demand buffer that kept that spread wide.