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European Energy Markets
8JUN

Clean spark spread reaches EUR 74

2 min read
12:01UTC

Germany's clean spark spread reached roughly EUR 74/MWh on 30 June, reversing a three-week run of losses, as EUA carbon held the EUR 80 handle at EUR 80.17.

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EconomicAssessed
Key takeaway

A high day-ahead lifted Germany's spark spread to EUR 74; carbon near EUR 80 caps the margin.

Germany's clean spark spread widened to roughly EUR 74/MWh on 30 June, its best reading since the early-June heat series 1. Take the day-ahead high, subtract about EUR 88 of gas input and EUR 32 of carbon at a 50%-efficiency CCGT, and the gross generating margin lands there. Three weeks earlier the same spread sat near EUR -8 to -9, with CCGTs losing money on every dispatched megawatt .

The carbon leg moved too. EUA (EU Allowance) permits slipped to EUR 79.25 on 29 June, briefly losing the EUR 80 handle, then recovered to EUR 80.17 on 30 June 2 . EUA had first broken above EUR 80 on 25 June, and holding that level keeps the carbon cost near EUR 32/MWh.

That EUR 32 carbon charge is what holds the German margin in check. Strip the permits out and the same day-ahead high would clear a spark spread well above EUR 100. The reversal from three weeks of losses tracks the day-ahead rather than any fall in gas: at an unchanged EUR 88 fuel leg, the power price alone turned the spread positive.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The clean spark spread is the profit a gas power plant earns per megawatt-hour it generates, after paying for the gas fuel and for EU carbon pollution permits. When the price of electricity is high and the price of gas and carbon is low, the spread is wide and generators make good money. When the price of electricity is low or gas and carbon are expensive, the spread can go negative, meaning operators lose money on each unit of electricity they produce. On 30 June, three things aligned to produce the widest spread since early June: electricity prices reached EUR 195 per megawatt-hour because wind was almost absent and demand was high; gas prices stayed at EUR 40-44 because Gulf tensions had eased; and EU carbon permits recovered to EUR 80 per tonne. A generator burning gas to make one megawatt-hour of electricity paid about EUR 88 for fuel and EUR 32 for carbon permits, leaving a gross margin of about EUR 74. Three weeks earlier, the same calculation gave a loss of EUR 8-9 per megawatt-hour. The difference is almost entirely the electricity price: it was EUR 70 higher on 30 June than on 8 June.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The EUR 74 spread on 30 June required three conditions to converge simultaneously. First, EUR 195/MWh day-ahead clearing: produced by the lowest wind week of 2026 coinciding with a summer heat surge, as documented in event 5.

Second, EUR 40-44 TTF: the Hormuz de-escalation of 17 June drained the geopolitical risk premium and the pipeline ban binding with no snap-back left no recovery bid. Third, EUA at EUR 80.17/tCO2: the carbon leg recovered after the EUR 79.25 dip on 29 June, maintaining the EUR 32/MWh carbon input that keeps the spread below what a carbon-free calculation would yield.

Remove any one condition and the spread collapses: at spring TTF of EUR 47-52 with the same EUR 195 day-ahead and EUR 80 EUA, the marginal cost rises to EUR 134-144/MWh and the spread falls to EUR 51-61/MWh, below most fixed-O&M recovery thresholds.

At EUR 195 power with EUR 44 gas but EUA at EUR 70, the carbon leg falls to EUR 28/MWh, reducing marginal cost by EUR 4/MWh and boosting the spread to EUR 78, a minor change that confirms gas price, not carbon, is the dominant spread driver in the current EUR 40-44 TTF regime.

Sources:euenergy.live·Trading Economics
Mentions:EUA →Germany →CCGT →TTF →
First Reported In

Update #22 · Germany refills as the autumn cliff nears

euenergy.live· 30 Jun 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
German clean spark spread holds negative
Germany's clean spark spread reversed its EUR -8 to -9/MWh three-week run when EUR 195 day-ahead power covered gas and carbon input costs at a 50% CCGT, widening to roughly EUR 74/MWh on 30 June.
Occurred 8 Jun 2026
Read story →
EUA carbon breaks EUR 80 as gas sags
EUA recovering from EUR 79.25 (29 June) to EUR 80.17 (30 June) after briefly losing the EUR 80 handle set the EUR 32/MWh carbon leg that held the German spark spread below EUR 100 even at EUR 195 day-ahead power.
Occurred 25 Jun 2026
Read story →
This Event
Clean spark spread reaches EUR 74
German gas-fired plants returned to profit as the day-ahead high lifted the spark spread above EUR 70, with carbon near EUR 80 capping the gain.
Led to
Two shocks squeeze the spark, not FR-DE
Contrasts against the EUR 74 spark spread reached on 30 June, showing the same margin pressure recurring under different drivers.
Occurred 9 Jul 2026
Read story →
EUA carbon breaks EUR 81 a tonne
The EUR 81 print extends the EUA run that first broke EUR 80 on 25 June and held EUR 80.17 on 30 June.
Occurred 13 Jul 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
French industrial power consumers
French industrial power consumers
France's day-ahead discount to Germany has nearly closed as TTF and EUA rise together on both sides of the border, eroding the arbitrage French industry relied on through the summer. A standing negative spark removes the German demand buffer that kept that spread wide.
TTF trading desks
TTF trading desks
Desks are reading the inversion as an injection-arbitrage trade: buy TTF at EUR 62.4/MWh now, accept the near-term loss on the spread, and sell into the winter strip once caverns are forced back into the market. The 0.8 GWh/day German print makes that trade increasingly asymmetric.
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Two straight sessions of negative clean spark spread confirm gas has stopped setting German power prices cleanly; CCGT dispatch now follows the spread's sign, not storage need. Caverns quitting the prompt bid on 21 July is that mechanism working exactly as the structural read predicts.
European Commission
European Commission
State-aid approval for StromVKG has not been granted, a status Bundesnetzagentur's own scheme page confirms, and Brussels was not consulted before the auction opened. Every award from the 8 September deadline stays exposed to a formal proceeding or clawback once the Commission rules.
Bundesnetzagentur
Bundesnetzagentur
Bundesnetzagentur opened the first 4.5 GW StromVKG capacity auction on 21 July, bids due 8 September, without waiting for EU state-aid clearance. Berlin is treating Germany's 24% share of EU storage as urgent enough to move first on capacity and negotiate the state-aid question with Brussels afterwards.
Marine insurers and AIS trackers covering Hormuz
Marine insurers and AIS trackers covering Hormuz
AIS data shows severe curtailment on 20 July, 479 vessels anchored, 36 dark, 123 still broadcasting inside the strait, not the closure the IRGC claims. War-risk premiums move on the unresolved CENTCOM-IRGC contest itself, since underwriters price the dispute as much as the count.