Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Drones: Industry & Defence
26OCT

Thirteen airlines book out to October

2 min read
15:07UTC

Thirteen foreign airlines have pushed their Gulf suspensions out to October after EASA advised European carriers to avoid four countries' airspace. Etihad is still flying from Abu Dhabi.

TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

Carriers have booked their absence from the Gulf through October, a forecast rather than a reaction.

Thirteen foreign airlines have extended suspensions of flights to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar through October, following a bulletin from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on 14 July advising European carriers to avoid all four countries' airspace⁠1.

Carriers plan crews, slots and aircraft rotations months ahead of departure. A suspension carried as far forward as October is a commercial judgement that this war does not finish in the summer, taken by planners who lose money whichever way they are wrong. Cancel too far out and the aircraft sits idle while rivals sell the route; cancel too late and the airline is paying for crews stranded on a field that shuts without notice.

Kuwait's airport suspended flights outright last week as Gulf carriers cut their services. That was a reaction to the day's events. Booking October is something else.

Etihad Airways has not grounded operations. As of Monday 20 July it was still flying most of its network out of Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, having cancelled only its Kuwait and Bahrain services in mid-July⁠2. A Gulf carrier operating from a Gulf hub reads the same airspace differently from a European one working to an EASA bulletin, and the split is visible in the timetables.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency, a regulator that advises airlines on where it is unsafe to fly, told European carriers on 14 July to avoid the airspace over the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Airlines from outside Europe often follow EASA's lead because it affects their insurance and legal position even when they are not legally bound by it. Thirteen foreign airlines have now extended their suspensions of flights to those four countries all the way through October, rather than reviewing the situation week by week. Etihad Airways, based in Abu Dhabi, is the exception: it is still flying most of its network, having only cancelled flights to Kuwait and Bahrain specifically.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

EASA bulletins are advisory, not binding on non-EU carriers, but they function as a liability shield: an airline that ignores a published EASA warning and then suffers a loss over Gulf airspace faces a harder insurance and litigation position than one that followed it. That is why 13 carriers extended suspensions well beyond the EU's own jurisdiction.

Etihad's narrower response, cutting only Kuwait and Bahrain while keeping most of its network flying from Zayed International, is the one confirmed exception to that pattern. The research available does not establish why Etihad's risk calculus differs from the other 13 carriers; that gap is worth watching rather than filling in.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    An October horizon gives Gulf airports and tourism-dependent carriers a fixed planning window rather than an indefinite one, but it also locks in roughly ten weeks of lost transit and inbound traffic regardless of how the conflict develops before then.

First Reported In

Update #159 · A second strait closes by radio alone

Anadolu Agency· 22 Jul 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Thirteen airlines book out to October
Airlines are now planning around this war as far ahead as October, which prices a forecast rather than a reaction.
Different Perspectives
Nigerian Air Force
Nigerian Air Force
The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.
Civilians in Western Sahara
Civilians in Western Sahara
A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.
Thunder Tiger
Thunder Tiger
The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.
EDGE Group
EDGE Group
The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.
Rajnath Singh
Rajnath Singh
India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.
Kongsberg
Kongsberg
The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.