26OCT

ICE WTI book short as NYMEX WTI stays long

2 min read

15:07UTC

CFTC positioning data for the week to 2 June showed managed money net short -26,694 contracts on ICE Futures Europe's WTI contract but net long +90,765 on NYMEX WTI, the larger book.

← Back to China puts drone-part exports under licence Jump to analysis ↓

TechnologyDeveloping

Key takeaway

Managed money was short the small ICE WTI contract but long the main NYMEX WTI book, so the data do not show a rally without a long base.

The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the US derivatives regulator, released Commitments of Traders data for the week to 2 June showing managed money on ICE Futures Europe's West Texas Intermediate contract net short at -26,694 contracts, while the larger NYMEX WTI managed-money book held +90,765 net long⁠¹. The ICE breakdown is lopsided: 6,038 longs against 32,732 shorts. On the same ICE contract the legacy non-commercial net short narrowed to -7,851 from -27,232, so positioning there was unwinding into the OPEC weekend but had not flipped long.

The data do not settle which kind of rally Monday's gap was. Shorts covered on the small ICE contract, but managed money in the main NYMEX WTI book was net long and adding longs.

The CFTC does not publish ICE Brent, so the ICE Brent managed-money position for the same week is not in this dataset. NYMEX Brent Last Day managed money held +6,799 net long.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Every Friday, a US regulator called the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) publishes a report showing how financial traders, mainly hedge funds, banks, and other speculators, are positioned in oil futures markets. This report, called the Commitments of Traders, tells you whether professional money is betting that oil prices will rise or fall. For the week ending 2 June, the data showed that managed money held far more bets on falling prices than rising ones in the WTI contract traded on ICE Futures Europe: 32,732 short contracts against 6,038 long. On the much larger NYMEX WTI contract, the same group held about 90,765 more bets on rising prices than on falling ones.

What could happen next?

Consequence
The 71% reduction in legacy non-commercial net short from -27,232 to -7,851 suggests this category's covering cycle is nearly complete; the next directional driver will require fresh managed-money conviction rather than short-covering mechanics.
Risk
If the Friday 12 June CFTC print shows managed money rebuilding short positions after the Monday squeeze, the Monday rally will have provided only a temporary floor above $95 Brent.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The 5.4:1 short-to-long ratio applies to managed money on ICE Futures Europe's WTI contract (32,732 short against 6,038 long) as of 2 June. That 26,694-contract net short is about 26.7 million barrels at 1,000 barrels a contract, against a NYMEX WTI managed-money net long of +90,765.

On ICE WTI, the legacy non-commercial category narrowing from -27,232 to -7,851 in a single week demonstrates the velocity at which covering can occur once triggered. A sustained move above $97.82 Brent would likely force the remaining ICE WTI managed-money shorts to accelerate covering, temporarily widening WTI demand even as the fundamental supply picture remains unchanged.

Consensus view: ESMA's MiFID II weekly position data (not yet available for this window) would provide the European complement to the CFTC print. On the US side, the week-to-2-June COT shows managed money short ICE Futures Europe's WTI contract (32,732 short against 6,038 long) but net long +90,765 on NYMEX WTI.

The main NYMEX WTI book was long, so the data do not show funds short WTI into the Brent squeeze.

Counter-view: Pepperstone's energy research desk argues that the legacy non-commercial category (which includes commodity trading advisors running systematic momentum models) has nearly completed its short-covering cycle. The 71% reduction in the ICE WTI legacy non-commercial net short from -27,232 to -7,851 in a single week leaves ICE WTI managed money at -26,694 as the remaining covering fuel, but those funds require a sustained directional signal, not a single weekend geopolitical shock.

Key tension: Whether ICE WTI managed money's remaining -26,694 net short represents residual covering fuel for a second rally leg, or whether Friday's fresh CFTC print (for the week to 9 June) will show new short entry following the Monday squeeze back into the position.

Sources:CFTC

Mentions:CFTC →Iran →MiFID →Kyiv →KSE Institute →OPEC →Israel →ESMA →Brent-WTI →Commitments of Traders →West Texas Intermediate →

First Reported In

Update #6 · OPEC's quota is fiction at a 37-year low

CFTC· 8 Jun 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

This Event

ICE WTI book short as NYMEX WTI stays long

The positioning print is mixed: managed money was short ICE Futures Europe's WTI contract (6,038 long against 32,732 short) but net long +90,765 on NYMEX WTI.

Led to

Brent round-trips the squeeze as backwardation holds

CFTC data showing Brent managed-money net short at -57,280 is the positioning data that explains both the squeeze violence and the reversal speed.

Occurred 11 Jun 2026

Read story →

Longs rebuilt into an 8-week low

WTI net short -26,694 is the baseline from which the 121,419-contract swing to +94,725 net long is measured in the week to 9 June.

Occurred 12 Jun 2026

Read story →

WTI longs hold, Brent book stays thin

WTI managed-money net long of +82,872 is the rebound from the -26,694 net-short trough in early June as the conflict-premium unwind completed.

Occurred 27 Jun 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Nigerian Air Force

The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.

Civilians in Western Sahara

A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.

Thunder Tiger

The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.

EDGE Group

The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.

Rajnath Singh

India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.

Kongsberg

The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.