Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Drones: Industry & Defence
26OCT

Brent spikes on the strike, then gives it back

2 min read
15:07UTC

Brent crude spiked intraday to roughly $109.98 on Friday 11 September on news of the pipeline attack, then settled the same session at $104.61, down 2.81 per cent.

TechnologyDeveloping

Brent Crude spiked intraday to roughly $109.98 on Friday 11 September 2026, around 6 per cent higher overnight on news of the attack on the Saudi east-west crude line and its highest since early May, then settled the same session at $104.61, down 2.81 per cent⁠1. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, settled at $100.05, down 2.37 per cent⁠2.

Both numbers are Friday's, and both close a session that began with the pipeline news. Brent settled at $71.99 on 26 June, and Friday's close sits far above that on the same benchmark. The US Energy Information Administration had raised its forecast for Middle East production shut in during the fourth quarter and pushed its recovery date into 2027 two days earlier, on 9 September.

A spike that unwinds inside a session says traders priced a disruption to a route rather than a loss of barrels. Saudi crude still reaches the water, and the Ministry of Energy has named neither a damaged segment nor a restart date, so the quantity actually removed from the market is unknown to the people pricing it. Futures markets do not trade on Saturday or Sunday. Monday 14 September is the first settlement that can price anything that happened over the weekend.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil is bought and sold on futures exchanges, where a price moves all day and then a single closing figure, the settlement, goes in the record. On Friday 11 September news of the attack on the Saudi pipeline pushed Brent Crude, the main global benchmark, up to around $109.98 at one point. By the close it had fallen back to $104.61, which was below Thursday's closing price. The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $100.05. So the market got excited and then changed its mind inside a single day. Exchanges are shut at the weekend, which means anything that happened on Saturday or Sunday has to wait until Monday to show up in a price at all.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    A spike that unwinds inside one session prices a disruption to a route rather than a loss of barrels.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    Two days of weekend news sit unpriced, and the first settlement able to carry them is Monday 14 September.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Consequence

    A forecaster raising its shut-in estimate while the market lowers its close leaves buyers hedging against two different views of the same quarter.

    Short term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #178 · Saudi bypass hit, and Riyadh holds fire

Anadolu Agency· 13 Sept 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Different Perspectives
Nigerian Air Force
Nigerian Air Force
The air force listed 12 Turkish Aksungur and two Chinese CH-4D armed drones on 25 October. No contract has been published, so these are plans.
Civilians in Western Sahara
Civilians in Western Sahara
A UN report of October 2023 records allegations of Moroccan drone strikes east of the berm. An aerial strike there in November 2022 reportedly killed six civilians, the UN said, citing Polisario and local media.
Thunder Tiger
Thunder Tiger
The Taichung company said on 16 October that all 1,520 of its Gauntlet I attack drones passed inspection. Its MoU with AeroVironment covers fitting Switchblade to its uncrewed boats and ground vehicles and exploring joint production in Taiwan.
EDGE Group
EDGE Group
The Emirati group said on 9 October it will supply glide bombs and guidance kits for the Royal Moroccan Air Force's armed drones. A separate memorandum explores making small arms and aero engines in Morocco.
Rajnath Singh
Rajnath Singh
India's Defence Acquisition Council, which he chairs, approved about Rs 2.12 lakh crore of proposals on 26 October, including kamikaze drones and tank-mounted counter-drone systems. About 82 per cent of the value is to go to Indian industry, by the ministry's account.
Kongsberg
Kongsberg
The Norwegian group said on 13 October it will invest more than 200m zlotys in a Pomeranian plant to build and maintain SAN counter-drone systems. It expects series output to begin in the first half of 2028.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.